Nassim Nicholas Taleb-Pacalit de Hazard-437pages [PDF]

Zitiervorschau

Eroul cirgii estenorocul. Antieroul este agighicit! ghinionul. Iar Thleb spune aici povesteaintALlnirilor noastre cu acestepersonaje neintelese.

rolul ascunsal noroculuiin viat'l sl ln economic

i.rtr-un fel, Picdlit d.ebazard este o lucrare tragici. Autorul ne atrage atengia ci. sunrem la cheremul unor intimpliri pe care ratiunea nu le poate anticipa 9i, cu arat mai pugin, controla. Ele vin gi pleaci, lisind in urmi. cd.nd abundenti, c1nd penurie, cAnd extaz, cAnd catastrofe. Consolarea este c5.fenomenul acestae democratic in cel mai inalt grad - stim cu togii sub zodia lui.

g3-1 $I c a L [ q"-]1 *.{9fi F:

o

Singurul mod in carene putem descurcaintr-o lume afati sub semnul intAmplirii e si adopti.m pozigia stoicS.- contemplarea fenomenelor cate au puterea de a da totul p'estecap gi acceptareacu seninitate a condigiei noastre omenesti. Degi, pe alocuri, pare o lucrare despre universul cumva plicticos al finantelor, Pdcdlit de hazard e, de fapt, o meditagie filozofici asuPra lumii contemporane,

d,e

o

scrisi.intr-un stil pe cit de amuzant, pe atat de profund. Vh.vegiintilni, in paginile cirgii, cu figura iconici a baseballului Yogi Berra, cu miliardarul George Soros, cu

hazard

Popper gi Vittgenstein, cu David Hume, Kant gi Einstein ori cu legendarul Ulise.

Cartea estepentru ingelepciuneaconvenlionali de pe'W'all Street ce au insemnat cele nouizeci si cinci de teze ale lui Martin Luther pentru Biserica Catolici.

*#

- THE NEWYORKER

@

Prcilst

r:: CURTEA

l'l,,flirii

e nJoc

'-*.

+rrs @V ECHE

M

,ililIJIJ[il[]|ililUil

Seria NassimNicholasTaleb

NASSIM NICHoLAS TALEB (nascutin 1960la Amioun,Liban)estestatisticiar, practicianin matematici financiareli epistemologal probabilitaqilor.in prezent esteprofesorde ingineriea riscului la Institutul politehnical Universititii din New York.inainte, a lucrat la Bursadin New York si la ceade la Londratimp de douazeci ;i ur-rude ani qi s-a specializatin evaluareariscurilor implicate de evenimentele rare;i neprevizute.in acestmediu a fost supranumit,,disidentulde pe wall street", iar experienlaacumulati s-a concretizatin teoria LebedeiNegre,despreevenimen tele careau loc in ciudaunei probabilititi infime. Scrisain 2007,ceamai cunoscutadintre carlile sale,LebadaNeagra.Impactulfoarte pu;in probabiluft.ri (tradusala CurteaVechepublishing),a fost v6nduti, in edigia originald,in pestetrei milioanede exemplare;i a fost tradusain treizecisi una de limbi. Totodata,se consideraca autorul a anticipat in paginile ei criza bancarasi economicace aveasi survindin 2008in StateleUnite. De acela;i autor, la CurteaVechePublishingau mai apirut: Arttifragil, patut lui Procust.Aforisntepractice;i filosofice;i Cdndpieleata e in joc.

W6 Pdcilit dehazard R o l u l a s c u l t sa l n o r o c u l u i in viat[ si i n economie

'l'raducere din englczl de GTIIUR(]O BO(.IDAN

c r R ' r ' b 'A . G \ f. (. rr r.

Descrierea CIP a Bibliotecii Nalionale a RomAniei T A L E B ,N A S S I M N I C H O L A S Picilit de hazard : rolul ascunsal norocului in viali qi in economie,/ NassimNicholasTaieb; trad.de BogdanGhiurco. Bucuregti: CurteaVechePublishing,2019 ISBN 978 606-44-0410-7

Cuprins

I. Ghiurco,Bogdan(trad.) 159.9 ISBNepub: 978-606 44-0438-1 ISBNmobi: 978-606-44-0439 8 Cartepublicatd$i in edifie digitald

'L,__:

Prefata

'T!l

Redactor:RazvanAndrei Corector:ElenaTataru Tehnoredactor: Irinel Niculae CURTEAVECHEPUBLISHING str.Aurel Vlaicu nr. 35,Bucure;ti,020091 redactie:074455 47 63 distribulie: 02| 26022 87,021 222 25 36,074t 36 97 2 l f a x :0 2I 2 2 3 1 68 8 redactieq'curtc.tvc(he.r0 ./" Maximizare: Lucrdrilede psihologies-au concentratpe maximizare,in termenii alegerii,nu in termeni legati propriu-zis de optimizare.Merg mai departe,analizAndactivitatea de optimizarein viafa cotidiana.Pentruo sintezdsi o recenziea impactuluihedonistical maximizariisi desprede ce,,maipufin inseamnamai mult", vezi Schwartz(2003).Yezi tot Schwartz;.a. (2002).Pentrulegaturacauzalddintre nefericire ;i goanadupabeneficiimateriale,vezi Kasser(2002). Data decesuluitdu: ii datorezaceastaultima ideelui GerdGigerenzer. Comportament imprevizibil: VeziMiller (2000)pentru disculiaacestuiaspectin biologie.Vezitotodatasi aplicatiile lui Lucas(1978)asupraunei politici monetarealeatorii,care contraziceaqteptarile.

Referin[e

Albouy, Frangois-Xavier, Le temps des catastrophes, Descartes & Cie, Paris,2002. Al-Ghazali, ,,Mikhtarat Min Ahthar Al-Ghazali", in famil Saliba, Tarikh Al FalsafaAI Arabiah, Al Sharikah Al Ahlamiah Lilkitab, Beirut, 1989. Ambarish, R. gi L. Siegel, ,,Time Is the Essence",in RISI(, vol. 9, nr. 8, 1996, pp.41-42. Arnheim, Rudolf, Entropy and Art: An Essayon Disorder and Order, University of CaliforniaPress,Berkeley,1971. Arrow, Kenneth, ,,Economic Theory and the Postulate of Rationality", in Eatwell, f ., Milgate, M. ;i Newman, P.,ed., The NewPalgrave:ADictionary of Economics,Macmillan, Londra, 1987,vol. 2, pp. 69-7 4. Arthur, Brian W., Increasing Returns and Path Dependencein the Economy, Universityof Michigan Press,Ann Arbor, 1994. Banateanu, Anne, Ia th€orie stoicienne de l'amiti6: essai de reconstruction, Editions Universitaires de Fribourg, Fribourg/Editions du Cerf, Paris,2002. Barab6si, Albert-Ldszl6, Linked: The New Scienceof Networks,Perseus Publishing,Boston,2002. Barber, B.M. gi T. Odean, ,,The Internet and the Investor", in lournal of vol. 15,nr. 1, 2001,pp.41-54. EcononticPerspectives, Decisions and Their Limited Barron, G. qi I. Erev, ,,Small Feedback-based Correspondence to Description-basedDecisions",in lournal of Behavioral DecisiottMakittg, vol. 16, 2003, pp. 215-233. Bates,Elisabeth,,,Modularity,Domain Specificity,and the Developmentof Language",in Gajdusek,D.C.,McKhann,G.M. si Bolis, C.L.,ed.,Evolutiort and Neurology of Language:Discussionsin Neuroscience,vol. 10, nr. l-2, 1994,pp.136-t49. Bechara,A., A.R. Damasio,H. Damasio ;i S.W.Anderson, ,,lnsensitivitytcr Future ConsequencesFollowing Damage to Human Prefrontal Cortex" i n C o g n i t i o nv,o l . 5 0 , n r . 1 - 3 , 1 9 9 4 , p p . 7 - 1 5 . 415

Becker,Lawrence C., A New Stoicism,Princeton University press, princeto', NI. 1998. Bennett, Deborah 1., Ranclomness,Harvard University press, Carnbridge, Mass.,1998. Bernstein, Peter L., Against the Gods: The Remarkable Storyo/Risk. Wiley, New York, 1996. (\'ezi gi edilia in rom., impotriva zeilor. Remarcabila povestea riscului,trad. de Simona-MariaDrelciuc, Editura Humanitas, Bucuresti,2014) Berridge, Kent C., ,,Irrational Pursuits: Hyper-incentivesfrom a Visceral Brain",inBrocas,I.,;i I.Carillo, ed.,Thepsychologyaf EcottonticDecisions: Vol. 1: Rationalityand Well-being,Oxford University press, Oxford, 200i. Bouvier, Alban, ed., Pareto aujourd'liui, presses Universitaires cle France, Paris,1999. Brent, foseph, Charles Sanderspeirce: A trfe, Indiana University press, Bloomington, 1993. Brocas, I. ;i ]. Carillo, ed., The Psycltologyof Econonic Decisions:Vol. l: Rationality and Well-being,Oxford University press, Oxford, 2005. Brock, W.A. ;i P.f.F. De Lima, ,,Nonlinear Time Series, Complexity Theory, and Finance",Universityof Wisconsin,Madison, 1995. Brock, W.A., D.A. Hsieh ;i B. LeBaron, NonlinearDynamics, Chaos,and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence, N4lT press, Cambridge,Mass.,1991. Brockman, John, The Third Culture: Beyondthe ScientificRevolutiort,simon& Schuster,New York, 199.5. Buchanan, Mark, Lbiquity: Why Catastt"ophes Happeu. Three Rivers press, New York, 2002. Buehler,R.,D. Griffin gi M. Ross,,,lnside the planningFallacy:The Causesand Consequeuces of Optintistic Time predictions",in Gilovich,T.. D. Griffin gi D. Kahneman, ed., Heuristics and Bisses: The psychologyof Irtttritive [udgntert,CambridgeUniversitypress,Cambridge,N{areaBritanie,2002. Burnham,Terencec.,Esscys onGeneticEvohttionandEcononric.s,Dissertation. com., New York, 1997. Burnham,TelenceC.,,,Caveman Economics",HarvardBusinessSchool,2003. Burrrham,T. ;i f . Phelan,[v[eanGenes,perseuspr_rblishing, Boston,2000. Camerer, C., G. Loewenstein gi D. prelec, ,,Neuroecononrics:How NeuroscienceCan Inform Economics",Caltech,200i. Canrpbell, feremy, Grarnntnticol Man: Infonncttiott, Entropy, L',ggtage and Lili:, Sirnon & Schuster,New york, lc)g2. Carter,Rita, &Inpping the Mind, University of california press,Berkelev.1999. 41,6

Carter, Rita, Exploring Consciousrress,University of California Press, Berkeley,2002. Chancellor, Edward, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Fhancial Straus& Giroux,New York, 1999. Speculation,Farrar, Conlan, Roberta, ed., Stafesof Mittd: New DiscoveriesAbout How Our Braitts Make Us Who WeAre, Wiley, New York, 1999. Cootner, Paul H., The Random Character of StockMarket Prices, The N{lT Press,Cambridge,Mass.,1964. Cosmides, L. ;i l. Tooby, ,,Cognitive Adaptations for Social Exchange", in Barkow et al., ed., The Adapted Mind, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1992. Cover, T.M. qi J.A. Thomas, Elemetts of Infornntiott Theory,Wiley, New York,1991. Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaiy, Flow: The Psychology of Optinnl Experiertce, Perennial Press,New York, 1993. (Vezi qi edilia in rom., F/ux.'psihologia fericirii,trad. de MorricaLungu, Editura Publica,Bucuregti,2015) Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, FirrdittgFIow: The Psychologyof Engagententwith EverydayLife, Basic Books, New York, 1998.(Vezi !i edilia in rom.,,Stcrecr de flux. Psihologia experienleisupretne,trad. de Monica Tudora, Curtea VechePublishing,Bucuregti,2007) Damasio, Antonio, Descartes'Error: Entotion, Reasott,and the Huntan Brairt, Avon Books,New York, 1994. lYezi;i edilia. in rom., Erocrea lui Descartes. Entofiile, raliunea $ creierul uman, trad. de Irina Tdnasescu, Editura Humanitas,Bucuregti,2005) Damasio, Antonio, The Feeling of WInt Happens: Body and Ernotion irt the Harvest Books, New York, 2000. Making of Consciotrsness, Damasio, Antonio, Looking for Spinoza: loy, Sorrow attd the Feeling Braitt, Harcourt, New York, 2003. David, Florence Nightingale, Gantes, Gods, and Gamblittg: A History of Probability and Statisticalldeas, Oxford Unirrersity Press,Oxford, 1962. D a w e s ,R . M . ,D . F a u s t ; i P . E .N 4 e e h l , , , C l i n i cVael r s u sA c t u a r i a lJ u d g m e n t "i,n Science,vol. 243, 1989, pp. 1668- 1674. Dawkins, Richard, The SelfishGene,Oxford University Press,Oxford, 1989. (Vezi;i editia in rorn.,Genaegoisrri, trad. de Dan Criciun, EdituraPublica, Bucure;ti,2019) De Vany,Arthu r,Hollywood Econontics:Chaosin the Movie Industry,Routledge, Londra,2003. Debreu,Gerard,Theoryof Value,Wiley, New York, 1959. Dennett, Daniel C., Darwin's Dangerouslclea: Evoltrtionartd the MeanirtS;s