Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities - 10 (OCT-18) [PDF]

Zitiervorschau

THE TRADERS’ MAGAZINE SINCE 1982

Probability— probably a good thing to know Measuring the probability distribution of indicators

8

The V-Trade Part 8: The basic trading rules

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds: Which Way To Go? Battle of the funds

16

24

One-Day Wonder Trades A strategy for short-term options traders

30

INTERVIEW

Walking forward with Dion Kurczek OCTOBER 2018

34

www.traders.com

OCTOBER 2018

Daily technical commentary by expert analysts to help you make smarter investing decisions From daily blogs to live web shows, StockCharts.com hosts free current market analysis and educational commentary from some of the industry’s most distinguished technical analysts.

John Murphy

Martin Pring

Arthur Hill

Tom Bowley

Greg Schnell

Chip Anderson

Carl Swenlin

Erin Swenlin

Gatis Roze

Julius de Kempenaer

Free daily blogs featuring over a dozen renowned technical commentators StockCharts.com hosts free daily blog content from over a dozen professional technical analysts, including prominent names such as John Murphy, Martin Pring and Arthur Hill. Thousands of online investors trust StockCharts.com to provide the unbiased expert analysis and enriching educational commentary they need to cut through the noise and make smarter investment decisions.

Live web shows hosted by seasoned market technicians Our free web shows are hosted by some of the financial industry’s most distinguished chartists. Join these technical titans LIVE as they put their years of experience on display and share invaluable insights into the tools and strategies they use in their own trading. Visit StockCharts.com/webinars to learn more and watch our next show.

and more!

StockCharts.com © StockCharts.com,Inc. All Rights Reserved. Information provided by StockCharts.com is not investment advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions.

How much is your broker charging you? US Margin Loan Rates Comparison

Commission Rates Comparison Options1 Base per contract

$300K

Equity Trades

3.07%3

$2.30

no base cost $0.68 per contract4

E-Trade

8.50%

$6.95

$6.95 base + $0.75 per contract

Fidelity

7.57%

$4.95

$4.95 base + $0.65 per contract

Schwab

7.57%

$4.95

$4.95 base + $0.65 per contract

TD Ameritrade

8.25%

$6.95

$6.95 base + $0.75 per contract

Interactive Brokers2

Each firm’s information reflects the standard online trades pricing obtained from the respective firm’s websites as of 8/3/18. Pricing and offers subject to change without notice.

To see the full comparison visit:

ibkr.com/iwantmore

Interactive Brokers Rated #1 Best Online Broker 2018 by Barron’s*

Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. Member - NYSE, FINRA, SIPC – Supporting documentation for any claims and statistical information will be provided upon request. Services vary by firm. *Interactive Brokers rated #1, Best Online Broker according to Barron’s Online Broker Survey 2018: All Together Now, March 26, 2018. For more information see, ibkr.com/info Barron’s is a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co. Inc. [1] Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. For more information read the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”. For a copy, call 312 542-6901. [2] The IB commission rates shown are the average of the client commissions for trades executed in July 2018 and are subject to minimums and maximums as shown on the IB website. Some of the firms listed may have additional fees and some firms may reduce or waive commissions or fees, depending on account activity or total account value. Under some commission plans, overnight carrying fees may apply. [3] IB calculates the interest charged on margin loans using the applicable rates for each interest rate tier listed on its website. For additional information on margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/ interest. [4] $1.00 commission minimum.

10-IB18-1167CH1165

Contents

OCTOBER 2018, Volume 36 Number 11

7 Inside-Range Gap Breakouts The Traders’ MagazineTM EDITORIAL

[email protected] Editor in Chief Jack K. Hutson Editor Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan Production Manager Karen E. Wasserman Art Director Christine Morrison Graphic Designer Wayne Shaw Webmaster Han J. Kim Contributing Editors John Ehlers, Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. Contributing Writers Thomas Bulkowski, Martin Pring, Barbara Star, Markos Katsanos

OFFICE OF THE Publisher

Publisher Jack K. Hutson Industrial Engineer Jason K. Hutson Project Engineer Sean M. Moore

Advertising Sales

4757 California Ave. S.W. Seattle, WA 98116-4499 206 938-0570 Fax 206 938-1307 [email protected] National Sales Manager Edward W. Schramm [email protected]

Circulation

Subscription & Order Service 1 800 832-4642 1 206 938-0570 Fax 1 206 938-1307 [email protected] Subscription Manager Sean M. Moore

Website

http://www.traders.com

Staff members may be emailed through the Internet using first initial plus last name plus @traders.com Author­i­za­tion to pho­to­copy items for inter­nal or per­sonal use, or the inter­nal or per­sonal use of spe­cific cli­ents, is granted by Tech­ni­cal Anal­y­sis, Inc. for users reg­is­tered with the Cop­y­right Clear­ance Cen­ter (CCC) Transactional Reporting Serv­ice, pro­vided that the base fee of $1.00 per copy, plus 50¢ per page is paid directly to CCC, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923. Online: http://www.copyright.com. For those organ­iz­ a­tions that have been granted a photocopy license by CCC, a sep­a­rate sys­tem of pay­ment has been arranged. The fee code for users of the Transactional Reporting Serv­ice is: 0738-3355/2018 $1.00 + 0.50. Sub­scrip­tions: USA: one year (13 issues) $89.99; Magazines shipped outside the US require additional postage as follows: Canada, US$15 per year; Europe, US$25.50 per year; all other countries US$39 per year. Sin­gle copies of most past issues from the cur­rent year are avail­a­ble pre­paid at $8 per copy. Prior years are avail­a­ble in book format (without ads) or digitally from www.traders. com. USA funds only. Washington state res­i­dents add sales tax for their locale. VISA, MasterCard, AmEx, and Discover accepted. Subscription orders: 1 800 832-4642 or 1 206 938-0570. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities™, The Traders’ Magazine™, is prepared from information believed to be reliable but not guaranteed by us with­out further verification, and does not purport to be complete. Opinions expressed are subject to revision without notification. We are not offer­ing to buy or sell securities or commodities discussed. Technical Anal­ysis Inc., one or more of its officers, and authors may have a position in the securities discussed herein. The names of products and services presented in this magazine are used only in an editorial fashion, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringing on trademark rights.

by Ken Calhoun They may not be your traditional gaps, but they can end up with breakouts that are just as big as or bigger than some of the more popular type of gaps. Discover how to use these gaps in your trading.

FEATURE ARTICLE 8 Probability—Probably A Good Thing To Know

TIPS

by John F. Ehlers The idea of reversion to the mean is one that traders tend to take for granted. Can you confidently assume all indicators subscribe to the normal probability distribution? Here, we measure the probability distribution of a few indicators to determine if they can be used as part of your reversion-to-the-mean trading strategy.

16 The V-Trade, Part 8: The BasicTrading Rules

by Sylvain Vervoort In this eighth part of a multipart series, we look at the V-Trade trading rules.

24 ETFs vs. Mutual Funds: Which Way To Go?

by Cassandra Wang Even short-term traders will have some investments they hold for the longer term. But even those longer-term investments need some monitoring from time to time. Here’s how you can apply a momentum strategy using technical analysis tools to help select mutual funds or ETFs to add to your portfolio.

30 One-Day Wonder Trades

by Robert J. Seifert Is there such a thing as a conservative one-day options trade that gives you an edge? Yes there is, and here is how professional options traders put it into action.

INTERVIEW 34 Walking Forward With Dion Kurczek

by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan A software developer and individual trader, Dion Kurczek has developed charting and backtesting programs for trading, including the Wealth-Lab platform (acquired by Fidelity Investments in 2004). Recently, he has developed a cloud-based backtesting platform, Quantacula, and a Javascript-based

charting and backtesting site, JuicyCharts.com. We spoke with Kurczek to find out more about why it’s important to him to offer traders a way to develop and test their own trading systems and ideas.

38 Futures For You

by Carley Garner Here’s how the futures market really works.

40 Q&A

by Rob Friesen This professional trader answers a few of your questions.

42 Explore Your Options

by Jay Kaeppel Got a question about options?

44 The Trend Is Your Friend

by Bruce Ross All trends aren’t created equal. How do you know if a trend is truly your friend? Here are a couple of pointers that’ll help you have a long and sustained relationship with the trend.

AT THE CLOSE 60 Safety Is More Than A Dance

by Gabriel Gonzalez Is there such a thing as safety when it comes to investing or trading? Let’s find out.

QUICK-SCAN

28 MarketClub

Web-based trade-selection scanning platform with buy & sell signals for stocks, futures, forex, and mutual funds.

DEPARTMENTS 6 Letters To S&C 46 Trade News & Products 48 Traders’ Tips 57 Advertisers’ Index 57 Editorial Resource Index 58 Futures Liquidity 59 Classified Advertising 59 Traders’ Resource 62 Books For Traders

This article is the basis for TIPS Traders’ Tips this month.

n Cover: Ken Smith n Cover concept: Christine Morrison

Copyright © 2018 Technical Analysis, Inc. All rights reserved. Information in this publication must not be stored or reproduced in any form without written permission from the publisher. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities™ (ISSN 0738-3355) is published monthly with a Bonus Issue in March for $89.99 per year by Technical Analysis, Inc., 4757 California Ave. S.W., Seattle, WA 98116-4499. Periodicals postage paid at Seattle, WA and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities™ 4757 California Ave. S.W., Seattle, WA 98116-4499 U.S.A.

Printed in the U.S.A.

4 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

Simply Advanced

Just launched...

XVI

Featuring the NEW Explorer

Discover the latest features at metastock.com/whats-new

The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects relating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us about it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would not exist. Email your correspondence to [email protected] or address your correspondence to: Editor, Stocks & Commodities, 4757 California Ave. SW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499. All letters become the property of Technical Analysis, Inc. Letter-writers must include their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily represent those of the magazine.—Editor

ERRATA: THE V-TRADE, PART 6 Editor, When reading part 6 of Sylvain Vervoort’s series on the V-Trade in the August 2018 issue, I was a little irritated when I read the text on page 17 referring to positive divergence in Figure 2. Is it possible that Figures 2 and 5 were mistakenly exchanged, since the author writes that price is going down but in Figure 2 price is going up? Currently, I am working on a trading system based mainly on Bollinger Bands for the entry (enter long if close>0,5 upper Bollinger Band). My main problem is that there are too many entries, so I need to find another indicator to reduce the bad entries. After testing dozens of different indicators, I am still not satisfied with the system’s reliability. Thus, I was very

interested in Vervoort’s SRSI indicator, which I programmed for the Nanotrader platform. To be honest, I find it difficult to interpret the results of the SRSI, as they are quite different from the normal RSI or STO. Can the author offer any more explanation on why he uses the stochastic on the two SMAs of the RSI differences? In my opinion, one of the greatest influences on the success of a trading system is the timeframe used. Prices are not fractal, and if you use too small of a timeframe, any trading system is going to fail. At least that is my experience. juergen Author Sylvain Vervoort replies: Thank you for writing. You are correct— Figures 2 and 5 were switched. (My fault, I marked these files with the wrong name.)

FIGURE 1: SRSI. Ideally, the SRSI indicates buy & sell signals when turning up or down from the low or upper side (see vertical dotted lines) while at the same time showing the type of reversal based on the convergent and divergent moves.

6 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

The main purpose of the SRSI is to confirm corrections and reversals based on the convergent or divergent moves. The SMAs applied to the RSI differences are there to smooth the signal. The ideal SRSI should indicate buy and sell signals when turning up or down from the low or upper side (see the vertical dotted lines in the chart in Figure 1 here) while at the same time showing the type of reversal based on the convergent and divergent moves. Personally, I apply all the techniques explained in my V-Trade article series. That works fine but it is not easy. You need a lot of practice. I find that the trader needs to apply a series of different techniques to remain consistently profitable. In addition, you should not use, or use as little as possible, any technique that uses optimization. Weekly & Daily Stochastic Editor, First and foremost, thank you for Vitali Apirine’s September 2018 article in S&C, “Weekly & Daily Stochastics,” which even a novice technical analyst like me can truly understand. My investing timeframe is longer than that of most traders/investors and thus, I find the weekly/monthly charts to be very important in my work. In Apirine’s article, he uses settings of 14 (daily) and 70 (weekly). I would like to construct a weekly and monthly dual stochastic on a single chart. Therefore, would the author be so kind as to tell me what monthly input setting he would use for the monthly, assuming that 70 would still be used for the weekly input? Thank you very much. Nancy West

Author Vitali Apirine replies: Thank you for your kind words about Continued on page 33

TRADING ON MOMENTUM

2018 WINNER

Don’t Get Fooled!

AI TRADING SOFTWARE

Inside-Range Gap Breakouts They may not be your traditional gaps, but they can end up with breakouts that are just as big as or bigger than some of the more popular type of gaps. Discover how to use these gaps in your trading.

T

by Ken Calhoun

Trading inside gaps Whenever a stock opens at a price higher than the previous day’s close, this small gap is likely to attract additional buying. This is because it will show up on various scanning programs that identify percentage gainers each morning for active traders, who then buy shares. You can see this pattern in the chart of Noble Energy Inc. in Figure 1, when, on July 24, 2018, the inside-range price gapped up from the previous day’s close of $34.55 up to $35/share. It ran all the way up to $35.80 before pivoting.

Step-by-step action plan

Here’s how you can start to use the insiderange gap breakout strategy: Step 1: Find charts with a small gap up that is above the prior day’s close and below the prior day’s high, as seen in Figure 1 on July 24, 2018. Step 2: Use an entry price of $0.20 above the low of the gap up ($34.80 plus $0.20 equals $35 in this example). Step 3: Use an initial stop of the prior day’s low ($34.50 in this example). Step 4: Anticipate reversals right under whole numbers and close out all daytrades once they reach a price level of 0.80 or above ($35.80 in this example). If you’re swing trading, use the prior day’s high as your initial stop level.

Build powerful trading systems in MINUTES without coding

®

www.NeuroShell.com 301.662.7950 Insights: Why this

technique works Gaps occur when traders are willing to pay a premium price above the previous Continued on page 46

esignal

rading gaps is a long-time favorite strategy for active day and swing traders. In this month’s column, I will show you a new strategy for trading gaps that begin inside the previous day’s trading range. This is different from traditional gap-trading strategies, which rely primarily on multipoint gaps above prior resistance levels. These smaller inside gaps often lead to big breakouts once they continue upward above the previous day’s high. You can see these visually by using a two-day chart similar to the one featured here in Figure 1.

Winner 16 years in a row!

Figure 1: Inside-Range Gap Breakout (NBL). In this case, the small inside gap continued upward for a full point. October 2018

• Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities • 7

8 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

TRADING SYSTEMS

Back To Normal

Probability—Probably A Good Thing To Know accumulate the bin counts across the data history. Then, on the last bar on the chart, I export all the bin values to a text file. I can then import this text file into Excel and plot the occurrences in each of the bins as a bar chart. The result is the probability density of the indicator. In the sidebar “EasyLanguage Code For Measuring Probability Distribution,” I provide a listing titled wing trading, or reversion to the mean, is a “Code fragment to measure indicator probability popular trading style mainly because it is distribution” that shows how to accumulate the bin a strategy that typically yields a relatively counts and export them to a text file. high percent of winning trades. The idea In my May 2018 Stocks & Commodities article behind it is that if prices have swung far enough from “RocketRSI,” I described an RSI indicator that swings their mean price, there is high probability that price from -1 to +1. I’ll use that indicator to measure the will swing back to the mean value. Two of the most probability distribution of an RSI. You can find the inelegant technical analysis terms—overbought and complete code listing for doing this in “MyRSI With oversold—imply probability considerations. There Probability Distribution Measurement” in the sidebar are a number of strategies based on overbought and to this article. Since this RSI only swings from -1 to oversold conditions. For example, a commonly pro- +1, I won’t be using all the bins, but it will still provide moted rule is to buy when an RSI is crossing over 20. a good handle on the probability distribution itself. The assumption is that when RSI is below 20, it is a The measured probability density of the MyRSI low-probability event and prices could recover back indicator, measured with default settings and applied toward the mean. Similarly, the complimentary rule to daily data of SPY for the 10-year period from is to sell short when the RSI is crossing under 80. January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2017, can be seen in Figure 1. The probability distribution is certainly Let’s challenge those assumptions It turns out that measuring the probability distribution of an oscillator-type indicator is relatively easy. First of all, you can assume the oscillator has a zero mean. If it doesn’t have a zero mean, it will be apparent in the probability distribution measurement itself. Next, assume the oscillator swings between -3 and +3. (I will revisit the oscillator with scaling to make this a good assumption.) I will provide 30 bins be- Figure 1: RSI MEASURED WITH DEFAULT SETTINGS ON SPY FROM JANUARY 2008 TO DECEMBER 31, 2017. Here you see the RSI probability distribution is low zero and 30 bins above zero in which to place 1, nearly uniform with an upside bias because of the uptrend in data over the time period the indicator value on each bar through history, and analyzed. The idea of reversion to the mean is one that traders tend to take for granted. Can you confidently assume all indicators subscribe to the normal probability distribution? Here, we measure the probability distribution of a few indicators to determine if they can be used as part of your reversion-to-the-mean trading strategy.

KEN SMITH

by John F. Ehlers October 2018

• Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities • 9

microsoft excel

S

Figure 2: rocket rsi indicator’s effect on probability distribution. The RocketRSI has a bell-shaped Gaussian probability distribution, which suggests it’s an indicator that could be used in a mean-reversion strategy.

not the bell-shaped probability distribution that is commonly assumed. I would characterize it as having a nearly uniform probability distribution with a bias toward the upside due to the uptrend in the data over the 10-year period. Certainly, this probability distribution shows the RSI should not be your indicator of choice to swing trade the SPY. The probability of being “overbought” is more than twice the probability at the mean. The upside bias due to the general trend up is also apparent in Figure 1.

But there is a way around it

All is not lost if you really want to use reversion to the mean as your trading strategy. A characteristic of the nonlinear Fisher transform is to convert virtually any waveform into a waveform having a nearly bell-shaped Gaussian probability distribution. I used this characteristic of the Fisher transform when I described the RocketRSI. The RocketRSI swings are limited to plus and minus three standard deviations, which is the reason I scaled the bins to measure probabilities to range between -3 and +3. The code for the RocketRSI is repeated here from my earlier article and can be found in the code listing “RocketRSI with probability distribution measurement” in the sidebar to this article, with the code to measure the probability distribution appended. When you apply the RocketRSI indicator to the same 10-year span of SPY data, it results in the beautiful bell-shaped probability distribution you see in Figure 2. The nearly Gaussian probability distribution means we have an indicator that we can use in a reversion-to-the-mean strategy with confidence. For example, if the indicator crosses above -2, this means it is departing a region that has only a 2.5% probability of occurring. In other words, there is a high probability of reversion to the mean, and that is a good opportunity to buy. Alternatively, you could anticipate the turning point by buying when the RocketRSI crosses under the -2 level. You might be a little early in your entry if you use this strategy, but you have also mitigated some of the lag created by calculating the indicator itself.

Beyond RSI

The use of indicators for swing trading or reversion-to-the-mean strategies isn’t limited to the RSI. For example, I created a simple oscillator indicator in my July 2018 Stocks & Commodities 10 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

article “Deviation-Scaled Moving Average.” The code for this oscillator is shown in the code listing titled “Deviation-scaled oscillator” in the sidebar to this article, with the code to measure the probability distribution appended. That indicator starts with an oscillator called zeros that is a simple two-bar difference of prices. This oscillator is important because of two characteristics in its transfer response, which I’ll describe next. First, when the cycle periods are long, and at the limit there is no change in price, the transfer response is zero. It is this characteristic that provides the nominal zero mean in the oscillator output. Further, its filter rolloff from shorter-cycle periods is -6 dB per octave. Market data is fractal, meaning the cycle amplitudes in its spectrum increase in direct proportion to their cycle periods. That means the data cycle amplitudes increase statistically at the rate of 6 dB per octave. Since the oscillator rolloff is -6 dB per octave and spectrum amplitudes are statistically increasing at the rate of +6 dB per octave, the result is that the zeros oscillator whitens the price spectrum. This is a good thing. Second, when the cycle period is exactly at twice the sampling rate, the samples are exactly one cycle period apart. This is called the Nyquist frequency period and is the shortest possible period in sampled data. In the zeros oscillator, the transfer response is zero at the Nyquist period because the samples are exactly one period apart for that spectral component. Having a zero in the transfer response at the Nyquist period eliminates the 6 dB increase in noise produced by a simple one-bar difference. Having a zero in the transfer response at the Nyquist period also reduces the impact of aliased data in the oscillator output. The zeros oscillator output is smoothed in my two-pole SuperSmoother filter (for more on this, see my January 2014 S&C article “Predictive And Successful Indicators”). The critical period of the SuperSmoother filter is the “half the input” period to retain the oscillator’s responsiveness, and the filter coefficients are calculated only on the first bar of data for computational efficiency. Since the zeros oscillator has a nominally zero mean, the SuperSmoother filter output also has a nominally zero mean. Therefore, the standard deviation can be calculated as the square root of the average sum of the squares of the smoothed filter waveform over the input period. This is commonly called the root mean square (RMS).

Not all oscillators are suitable for swing trading because their probability distributions don’t necessarily have low-probability events at the extreme swings of the indicator.

Make Futures a part of your present. Trade over 50 futures products on your desktop or mobile device with thinkorswim®. With interactive in-platform education, access to former floor traders, and the ability to test-drive strategies risk-free, the time for futures trading is now.

Visit tdameritrade.com/tradefutures to learn more. Futures trading is speculative and is not suitable for all investors. Futures accounts are not protected by SIPC. Futures trading services provided by TD Ameritrade Futures & Forex LLC. Trading privileges subject to review and approval. Not all clients will qualify. This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business. TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2017 TD Ameritrade.

A characteristic of the nonlinear Fisher transform is to convert virtually any waveform into a waveform having a nearly bellshaped Gaussian probability distribution. FIGURE 3: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR DEVIATION-SCALED OSCILLATOR. The oscillator is suitable for swing trading but there is a trend bias and the distribution has “fat tails.”

Dividing the RMS into the smoothed filter waveform scales the waveform in terms of standard deviations, and you can evaluate the indicator by measuring its probability distribution. I did that using the same data as before, and Figure 3 shows the oscillator is suitable for swing trading, but the trend bias is obvious and the distribution has “fat tails.” That is, the probability of being further from the mean is higher than a Gaussian probability distribution would have at the same deviation. This necessarily reduces the efficacy of the indicator for swing trading. It is possible to improve the probability distribution by using a trick associated with the Fisher transform. The indicator is already scaled in terms of standard deviations. You don’t care much if the deviation exceeds an absolute value of 2. So you simply apply the Fisher transform to absolute values of the indicator that are less than 2, and divide the input to the Fisher transform by 2 to avoid having the transform blow up. Fisher transform inputs must be limited to absolute values less than unity. In the code listing “Deviation-scaled oscillator with Fisher transform” in this article’s sidebar, you see the same code as for the deviation-scaled oscillator but with the Fisher transform trick included. When the Fisher transform is introduced with this trick and added to the deviation-scaled oscillator, and the oscillator is applied to the same data as before, it results in the nearly perfect bell-shaped Gaussian probability distribution. This is demonstrated in Figure 4.

Low or high probability?

Not all oscillators are suitable for swing trading because their probability distributions don’t necessarily have low-probability events at the extreme swings of the indicator. With this article, I have provided a code fragment that can be appended to any properly scaled oscillator and modified to produce the probability distribution of that oscillator on any data symbol of your choice. If the oscillator is not scaled, you can apply the RMS scaling without distorting the oscillator response or introducing any computational lag. Almost any oscillator-type indicator can have its probability distribution improved for swing trading by applying the Fisher transform using the technique I’ve described here and that is shown in the code listing “Deviation-scaled oscillator with Fisher transform” in the sidebar to this article. Good swing trading! 12 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

FIGURE 4: adding THE FISHER TRANSFORM TO THE DEVIaTiON-SCALED OSCILLATOR. This improved the probability distribution, as can be seen by the nearly perfect bell-shaped Gaussian probability distribution. This makes it a suitable indicator for swing trading.

Stocks & Commodities Contributing Editor John Ehlers is a pioneer in the use of cycles and DSP technical analysis. He is president of MESA Software and cofounder of StockSpotter. com and BeYourOwnHedgeFund.com, which is a new site that provides portfolios based on his algorithmic strategies.

Further reading

Ehlers, John F. [2018]. “RocketRSI—A Solid Propellant For Your Rocket Science Trading,” Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Volume 36: May. [2018]. “The Deviation-Scaled Moving Average,” Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Volume 36: July. [2014]. “Predictive And Successful Indicators,” Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Volume 32: January. Ehlers, John F. [2013]. Cycle Analytics For Traders, Wiley. ‡TradeStation

‡See Editorial Resource Index

The code given in this article is available in the Article Code section of our website, Traders.com. See our Traders’ Tips section beginning on page 48 for commentary and implementation of John Ehlers’ technique in various technical analysis programs. Accompanying program code can be found in the Traders’ Tips area at Traders.com.

EasyLanguage Code For MEASURING Probability Distribution Code fragment to measure indicator probability distribution For I = 1 to 60 Begin J = (I - 31) / 10; K = (I - 30) / 10; If Indicator > J and Indicator 0 Then CU = CU + Filt[count] Filt[count + 1]; If Filt[count] - Filt[count + 1] < 0 Then CD = CD + Filt[count + 1] Filt[count]; End; If CU + CD 0 Then MyRSI = (CU - CD) / (CU + CD); Plot1(MyRSI); Plot2(0); //Bin the indicator values in Bins from -3 to +3 For I = 1 to 60 Begin J = (I - 31) / 10; K = (I - 30) / 10; If MyRSI > J and MyRSI 0 Then CU = CU + Filt[count] Filt[count + 1]; If Filt[count] - Filt[count + 1] < 0 Then CD = CD + Filt[count + 1] Filt[count]; End; If CU + CD 0 Then MyRSI = (CU - CD) / (CU + CD); //Limit RocketRSI output to +/- 3 Standard Deviations IF MyRSI > .999 Then MyRSI = .999; If MyRSI < -.999 Then MyRSI = -.999; //Apply Fisher Transform to establish Gaussian Probability Distribution RocketRSI = .5*Log((1 + MyRSI) / (1 - MyRSI)); Plot1(RocketRSI); Plot2(0); //Bin the indicator values in Bins from -3 to +3 For I = 1 to 60 Begin J = (I - 31) / 10; K = (I - 30) / 10; October 2018

• Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities • 13

If RocketRSI > J and RocketRSI J and FisherFilt J and ScaledFilt J and FisherFilt "Add a reference" //2. In "C:\Windows\Microsoft.NET\Framework64\v4.0.30319\" (or "Framework" on 32-bit systems), //choose and okay "System.Windows.Forms.DataVisualization.dll" namespace WealthLab.Strategies { public class MyStrategy : WealthScript { protected override void Execute() { var rrsi = RocketRSI.Series(Close,8,10); ChartPane paneRocketRSI = CreatePane(40,true,true); PlotSeries(paneRocketRSI,rrsi,Color.DarkBlue,LineStyle. Solid,2);

double[] bin = new double[61]; for(int bar = GetTradingLoopStartBar(10 * 3); bar < Bars.Count; bar++) { for(int i = 1; i j && rrsi[bar] J And RocketRSI J And FisherFilt >> 12.1 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’18) CBOT 1 6 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••> 8.4 Russell 2000 E-Mini (Sep ’18) GBLX 2.3 1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••> 5.1 5-Year T-Note (Sep ’18) CBOT 0.7 9 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••> 8.2 Ultra T-Bond (Sep ’18) CBOT 2.3 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 10.7 T-Bond (Sep ’18) CBOT 1.7 3 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8 Crude Oil WTI (Oct ’18) NYMEX 5.6 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 9.1 Nasdaq 100 E-Mini (Sep ’18) GBLX 4.3 1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 8.9 2-Year T-Note (Sep ’18) CBOT 0.2 10 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 6.3 Soybeans (Nov ’18) CBOT 6.1 5 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 14.6 Sugar #11 (Oct ’18) ICEUS 9.2 5 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 6.8 Ultra 10-Year T-Note (Sep ’18) CBOT 1.2 4 ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 7.7 Eurodollar (Dec ’18) CME 0.1 14 •••••••••••••••••••••• 2.9 Corn (Dec ’18) CBOT 4.9 21 •••••••••••••••••• 22.5 Euro FX (Sep ’18) CME 1.8 5 ••••••••••••••••• 17 Gold (Dec ’18) COMEX 2.9 4 ••••••••••••••••• 16.9 S&P Midcap E-Mini (Sep ’18) GBLX 4.1 1 •••••••••••••••• 10.1 Coffee (Dec ’18) ICEUS 6.1 3 ••••••••••••••• 8.3 Gasoline RBOB (Oct ’18) NYMEX 5.9 2 ••••••••••••••• 10.9 Dow Indu 30 E-Mini (Sep ’18) CBOTM 4.2 2 •••••••••••• 10.5 ULSD NY Harbor (Oct ’18) NYMEX 5 1 •••••••••••• 8.2 British Pound (Sep ’18) CME 2.2 5 •••••••••• 10 Soybean Meal (Dec ’18) CBOT 5.7 7 ••••••••• 15.6 Wheat (Dec ’18) CBOT 6.3 9 •••••••• 18.7 30-Day Fed Funds (Oct ’18) CBOT 0 10 ••••••• 2.1 Natural Gas (Oct ’18) NYMEX 4.5 6 ••••••• 9.8 Silver (Sep ’18) COMEX 5.5 2 ••••••• 12 Japanese Yen (Sep ’18) CME 1.1 6 •••••• 8.9 Cotton #2 (Dec ’18) ICEUS 7.2 6 ••••• 22.6 Lean Hogs (Oct ’18) CME 6.4 5 ••••• 7.9 Live Cattle (Oct ’18) CME 3.8 6 ••••• 11.5 CBOT Chicago Board of Trade, Division of CME Soybean Oil (Dec ’18) CBOT 3.9 14 ••••• 11.3 CFE CBOE Futures Exchange Crude Oil Brent (F) (Dec ’18) NYMEX 5.7 2 •••• 8.9 CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hard Red Wheat (Dec ’18) KCBT 6.4 9 •••• 19.1 COMEX Commodity Exchange, Inc. CME Group Platinum (Oct ’18) NYMEX 4.8 4 •••• 8.8 GBLX Chicago Mercantile Exchange - Globex Australian Dollar (Sep ’18) CME 1.9 9 ••• 15.5 ICE-EU Intercontinental Exchange-Futures - Europe Canadian Dollar (Sep ’18) CME 2.2 10 ••• 19.8 ICE-US Intercontinental Exchange-Futures - US Cocoa (Dec ’18) ICEUS 8.9 8 ••• 19.3 KCBT Kansas City Board of Trade High Grade Copper (Sep ’18) COMEX 4.7 5 ••• 17.4 MGEX Minneapolis Grain Exchange Mexican Peso (Sep ’18) CME 5 19 •• 30.7 NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange S&P GSCI (Sep ’18) CME 4 2 •• 9.7 Swiss Franc (Sep ’18) CME 2.3 7 •• 25.3 Brazilian Real (Sep ’18) CME 6.1 9 • 17.1 Feeder Cattle (Oct ’18) CME 4.1 3 • 11 1810 New Zealand Dollar (Sep ’18) CME 2 14.3 9 • Trading Liquidity: Futures is a reference chart for speculators. It compares markets “Relative Contract Liquidity” places commodities in descending order according to according to their per-contract potential for profit and how easily contracts can be bought how easily all of their contracts can be traded. Commodities at the top of the list are easior sold (i.e., trading liquidity). Each is a proportional measure and is meaningful only est to buy and sell; commodities at the bottom of the list are the most difficult. “Relative Contract Liquidity” is the number of contracts to trade times total open interest times a when compared to others in the same column. The number in the “Contracts to Trade for Equal Dollar Profit” column shows how volume factor, which is the greater of: many contracts of one commodity must be traded to obtain the same potential return In volume 1 or exp –2 as another commodity. Contracts to Trade = (Tick $ value) x (3-year Maximum Price In 5000 Excursion). Commodity Futures

Exchange

% Margin

Effective % Margin

58 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

Advisory Services Yes, You Can Cash In On Chaos! Certified Chaos Traders Courses teach you how. Learn to earn at http://moneytide.com?r=s EMini MoonTide Hotline up 198 months in a row http://daytradingforecasts.com?r=s

SOFTWARE

®

trading systems WHAT ELSE BUT THE SP500 OPTIONS “5 DAY TREND BALANCE” DO YOU NEED FOR POSITIVE, PINPOINT RESULTS, FROM LOW PRICED “SPY” OPTIONS? STRAIGHT CALLS OR PUTS, NOTHING COMPLICATED. BEN AT “KVS” HAS BEEN AT IT FOR WHAT SEEMS A CENTURY! PROFIT GOAL IS A MODEST +35% PER TRADE, WITHIN 4 SESSIONS. FOR COURTESY TRIAL, 10 TRADING DAYS, Send EMAIL TO: [email protected]. Your name, phone # and zip code will suffice.

Build and test systems without coding! www.NeuroShell.com

educational

websites

JOHN EHLERS WORKSHOP 12–14 October — San Simeon, CA An intimate and intense learning experience

www.mesasoftware.com

FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL To Advertise contact:

Come visit one of the most popular trading chat rooms for Breakout Trading.

[email protected] • (206) 938 0570

CHARTPATTERN.COM

Advertising

TRADERS' RESOURCE

TOP 10 VIEWED COURSES & SEMINARS They say that the more you learn, the more you know you need to learn. This is true in trading. If you’re not fully prepared when you go to trade, you could be the one whom the smart money profits from. Education is crucial in trading. If you don’t step up to the line with the right tools and know-how to trade the markets, you might as well be gambling — with the odds on the house’s side. But help is available, in courses, seminars, classes, manuals, books, tutorials, and personal trading mentors. Readers often ask us how they can further their knowl-

edge and skills in trading (that is, in addition to reading Stocks & Commodities!). The listing of courses & seminars at our website in the Traders’ Resource area is one place to start for educational resources. Readers may also want to check out our Readers’ Choice Awards in the 2018 Bonus Issue of Stocks & Commodities for the category of Trading Centers/Schools/Training. For more complete information, see the Traders’ Resource area at our website, www.Traders.com. There you can view specific information such as seminar dates and locations, instructors, hardware and software requirements, and target audience.

Product

LINKS

Company

1. Trading as a Business Workshop

VectorVest, Inc.

2. Retirement Income Workshop

VectorVest, Inc.

3. VectorVest Educational Services

VectorVest, Inc.

4. One-Day Options Course

VectorVest, Inc.

5. Executive Premier Workshop

VectorVest, Inc.

6. J. M Hurst Cycles Trading and Training Course

Traders Press

7. Profitunity Home Study Course — Stocks & Commodities

Profitunity Trading Group

8. EasyLanguage Bootcamp

TradeStation

9. Mastering EasyLanguage For Strategies

TradeStation

10. Counting Elliott Waves: The Profitunity Way

Profitunity Trading Group

These are the 10 Courses & Seminars listings clicked on most often on the Traders’ Resource website. Each product is listed in order of clicks received. This is not an editorial rating or ranking. For more information on specific products and services, try checking store.Traders.com for archived S&C product reviews.

The information in Traders’ Resource is the most accurate at the time of posting and is subject to change. Because the vendors posting to Traders’ Resource are responsible for their own listing, Technical Analysis, Inc. declines any and all liability for any representations made by the businesses and individuals listed. Nor can Technical Analysis, Inc. endorse any business or individual listed on Traders’ Resource. Technical Analysis, Inc. makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy and reliability of claims herein. You agree to release Technical Analysis, Inc., together with its respective employees, agents, officers, directors and shareholders, from any and all liability and obligations whatsoever in connection with or arising from your use of Traders’ Resource. If at any time you are not happy with the information posted to Traders’ Resource or object to any material within Traders’ Resource, your sole remedy is to cease using it. This list is updated frequently. If you are aware of a business that should be listed, please email us at [email protected].

October 2018

• Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities • 59

Safety-Based Investing

Safety Is More Than A Dance

F

by Gabriel Gonzalez

or fixed-income earners, safety-based investments are ideal and tend to be the most stable in terms of payout. But they also tend to pay back the least. When you think of safety-based investment vehicles, you think treasury bills, notes, government bonds, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, and bankers’ acceptance slips. These are commonly known as debt securities. Money markets and bond markets are where most of the safety-based investment vehicles are exchanged. Stable, established business entities and governments issue many of the safest investment vehicles. Last time, in my August 2018 article, I established three big objectives you could use when determining what investment strategy to implement with your hard-earned money. I also suggested you can’t typically excel in one without compromising the other two. That said, I will continue building upon the foundation of general investing knowledge and give each objective its due diligence, starting with safety.

60 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

What, again, does “safety” mean?

When something is considered safe, you typically think of it as being, at the very least, reliable and secure. In the context of investing, and this applies particularly to rookie investors or those with fixed incomes, you want your investment vehicle to be reliable in fulfilling its purpose and secure against outside change that could compromise that reliability. Safety-based investments meet these criteria, typically because the institutions involved are usually established and stable, such as governments or big corporations. I should add that it cannot be emphasized enough that there is ultimately no such thing as a truly safe investment. Everything mentioned here will always carry some kind of risk. That risk is just the lowest relative to other investment vehicles and markets. Get it? Securities At the foundation of safe investing are debt securities, which are defined by parameters such as notional amount (amount borrowed), interest rate, maturity, and renewal date (where applicable). We all know what a debt is, but what is a security? A security is an official document, verifying a specific fact—usually, credit or ownership of stocks and/or bonds. In

VICTORIA KURPOS/SHUTTERSTOCK

Is there such a thing as safety when it comes to investing or trading? Let’s find out.

AT THE CLOSE

this case, we are referring to debt; more specifically, debt securities of the government-issued variety. When you purchase a government-issued security, you are basically entering into a financial agreement with that government by lending it money. The type of security you purchase determines the terms of executing that agreement. One of the safest forms of government security is the treasury bill, also known as a T-bill, which is basically a governmentissued “IOU.” These are considered short-term loans with their maturities—or rates of duration—ranging from a few days up to a year (rarely exceeding this), and are typically arranged in one-, three-, and six-month intervals. During these monetary gestation periods, interest is accrued. The longer the maturity, the higher the interest rate goes. When the end of maturation is reached, the debt is repaid along with whatever interest is acquired. Notes & bonds Now we move on to notes and bonds, the next-tier government securities. They function similarly to T-bills, but the biggest differences are the maturity rates and interest payment methods. Notes and bonds are long-term loans, where notes are offered at one-, three-, five-, seven-, and 10-year maturities, while bonds are offered at even greater intervals, typically 20 and 30 years. Though T-bills are paid back at the end of the contract, notes and bonds pay the lender interest payments, called coupons, in six-month intervals. Certificates of deposit Edging toward the deep end of the relatively shallow risk pool are certificates of deposit, or CDs. Like T-bills, notes, and bonds, CDs have a maturity and interest rate. Unlike Tbills, notes, and bonds, they are promissory notes issued by banks that establish a time deposit, restricting the owner from withdrawing funds on demand. Despite this, their value is covered by the government, specifically the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation, or FDIC, which will cover the costs in the event of the issuing bank’s catastrophic failure. CDs tend to be favorable as they are more autonomous, meaning they are usually issued electronically, and can be set to automatically renew themselves upon reaching maturation. Bankers’ acceptance slips and commercial papers Finally, the riskiest of the safety-oriented vehicles are bankers’ acceptance slips and commercial papers. The former are short-term debt instruments issued by a company with the backing of a commercial bank. Each of the mentioned institutions is liable for the amount due when the investment matures, making it another relatively safe investment. On the other hand, the latter is known as an unsecured debt, meaning it has no form of collateral to back it up in the event the borrowing entity can’t repay the debt. But to reiterate the recurring theme with most of these vehicles, the short-term maturation of these loans makes them relatively safe from detrimental outside influence.

Financial markets are places where safety-centered vehicles along with many other, riskier vehicles are traded. A Brief intro to financial markets

Financial markets are places where safety-centered vehicles along with many other, riskier vehicles are traded. They come in two main categories: money markets and capital markets. Though there is some overlap in form and function, for the purpose of explaining safety, suffice it to say for now that most of the vehicles mentioned here reside in the money market, where most short-term vehicles are traded, though the long-term vehicles are usually found in the capital market. Stability— and this includes market stability—wherever it can be found, will only help these vehicles. In short, markets are considered stable when they can handle large volumes of trades without causing large shifts in prices. All things said, dealing with organizations that have so many digits on their ledgers usually means they work in large denominations of investment vehicles. For most individual investors, this simply isn’t an option. These numbers are too big to keep up. But this is no reason to tap out just yet. Groups of investors can form what are called investment funds, pooling their resources together to make these gargantuan bulk purchases.

The takeaway

Debt securities tend to be a good, safe start for the novice or fixed-income investor. Short maturities, more often than not, result in safer investments because there is less time for outside influences to affect their interest rate. Longer maturities are often made safer if they are issued and backed up by large, reputable financial entities. Ultimately, for the most reliable, albeit modest, return, going with stable markets and purchasing debt from large borrowing bodies that can weather uncertainty and the occasional crisis are the way to go. Gabriel Gonzalez is a freelance author and software designer with a bachelor’s degree in computer science. His latest book, a work of fiction, is Althea: An Oneiric’s Tale.

Further reading

Gonzalez, Gabriel [2018]. “Investing: An Objective-Based Primer,” Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Volume 36: August. Kenny, Thomas [2018]. “Differences Between Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds,” The Balance, April 18, retrieved online 7/9/2018. Siegel, David [2017]. “Basic Investment Objectives.” Investopedia, December 22, retrieved online 6/25/2018. Zucchi, Kristina [2018]. “Financial Markets: Capital Vs. Money Markets,” Investopedia, January 2, retrieved online 7/2/2018. October 2018

• Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities • 61

The following selection of book descriptions represents a sampling of recent book releases in the investing field. Books described here may be from some of the major book publishers as well as some independent book publishers. These are not critical reviews or editorial evaluations, but rather a brief look at the book marketplace to help keep readers up to date on new or recent book offerings.

Silicon Valley Babble On (440 pages, $39.95 softcover, $79.95 full-color version, $9.99 ebook, August 2018) by Tim Knight. Tim Knight started the SlopeOfHope.com website before the 2007 financial crisis began, with the site named after the maxim “markets climb a wall of worry and slide down a slope of hope.” It attracts a community of traders who use charts, economic cycles, and political discourse to shape their investment decisions. Over a dozen years, Knight posted over 20,000 blog entries on the Slope Of Hope site, and for this new book, he gathered up what he considers the best and most illuminating of them. Topics covered include startups and culture in Silicon Valley; his own experiences building and selling high-tech businesses; lessons from the fast-paced world of equity trading; and life lessons drawn from personal experience. Some of the wide-ranging questions considered in the collected writings include: What do the words “color” and “clinkle” have to do with one another? How many successful companies have launched from The Startup Castle? Where do Silicon Valley parents send their kids instead of normal summer camps? How did Marissa Mayer make millions while at the same time bungling Yahoo? How did Knight get into the financial data business by way of a convicted speed dealer? What cofounders pocketed $6 million in investor cash and got away with it? What company raised a billion dollars and got nothing for it except a federal indictment? What is China’s social credit score and what will it mean? Will the concept of universal basic income save or ruin us? What is going to be the most meaningful technological shift in the next 20 years? SlopeOfHope.com

The WealthTech Book (336 pages, $39.95 softcover, $25.99 ebook, April 2018, ISBN 978-1-119-36222-7) by Susanne Chishti and Thomas Puschmann, published by Wiley. This crowdsourced guide aims to show the disruption, innovation, and opportunity that technology is bringing to the investment management sector. It seeks to provide information for entrepreneurs, innovators, investors, insurers, analysts, and consultants working in or interested in investing in this space. The digital evolution is enabling the creation of sophisticated software solutions that make money management more accessible, affordable, and eponymous. Full automation is attractive to investors at an early stage of wealth accumulation, but hybrid models are of interest to investors who control larger amounts of wealth, particularly those who have enough wealth to be able to efficiently diversify their holdings. The book explains how 62 • October 2018 • Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

the wealth management sector is being affected by competition from low-cost robo-advisors; it explores how to keep customers happy while managing their assets; and offers inspirational success stories. The book is intended for investment and fund managers, asset allocators, family offices, and entrepreneurs. www.wiley.com

Review Of Financial Economics (quarterly journal, $676, print ISSN: 1058-3300, online ISSN 1873-5924), edited by Tarun Mukherjee and Gerald Whitney, published by Wiley Periodicals. The Review Of Financial Economics (RFE) publishes original research in various areas of financial economics (for example, corporate finance, investments, financial institutions, international finance, and the relationship between macroeconomic factors and corporate financial decisions). The RFE’s scope is to consider empirical research rather than theoretical work. www.wiley.com

High Frequency (bimonthly journal, online ISSN 2470-6981), edited by Ionut Florescu and Frederi Viens, published by Wiley Periodicals. High Frequency is a interdisciplinary journal on applied and theoretical topics devoted to high-frequency data questions. The intent is for the journal to be a focal point around which the emerging high-frequency community of modelers, quantitative researchers, empirical analysts, and data scientists can coalesce without regard to disciplinary boundaries, to help enhance and produce impactful applications in all areas of science and engineering. www.wiley.com

Engines That Move Markets: Technology Investing From Railroads To The Internet And Beyond, 2d. ed. (570 pages, £49.99 hardcover with free ebook version, August 2018, ISBNs 9780857195999 / 9780857196002) by Alasdair Nairn, published by Harriman House. This book’s premise is that some of the biggest technological innovations in the world have followed similar market and social patterns: scepticism is replaced by enthusiasm; venture capital is supplied; many companies are started and their stocks rise. But as the technology is developed and financial reality sets in, companies disappear, stocks collapse, and naive investors lose money. Nairn examines the impact that some of the greatest technological inventions of the past 200 years have had on financial markets and investors’ fortunes. Each chapter explores a different technological innovation and offers insights on how to apply these lessons to appraise the “new technology” companies of the future. Some of the key historical episodes examined include electric light and its commercial exploitation; the railway boom; development of the automobile industry; early development of the crude oil industry; the rise of the personal computer; the rise of wireless communication; the Internet and dotcom bubble. The books seeks to teach the reader how to recognize these patterns unfolding in the economy to profit from market-shaping events. www.harriman-house.com

Subscribe Or Renew Today! Every article at your fingertips.

Did you know that every subscriber to Technical Analysis of  Stocks & Commodities magazine has full access to the magazine in digital format? No waiting for the mail to be delivered, no need to carry around back issues — just log on to Traders.com on any internet-capable device and read any issue or article we’ve ever published, either in you browser, or downloaded to your device as a pdf for reading anytime, anywhere. Each subscription comes with: • Full access to our Digital Edition The complete magazine as a PDF you can download. • Full access to our Digital Archives That’s 35 years’ worth of content! • Complete access to WorkingMoney.com The information you need to invest smartly and successfully. • Access to Traders.com Advantage Insights, tips and techniques that can help you trade smarter. PROFESSIONAL TRADERS’ STARTER KIT A 5-year subscription to S&C magazine that includes everything above PLUS a free* book, Charting The Stock Market: The Wyckoff Method, all for a price that saves you $150 off the year-by-year price! *Shipping & handling charges apply for foreign orders.

8999 $ 99 2 years............ 149 $ 99 3 years............ 199

1 year..................

5 years............

$

$

29999

That’s around $5 a month!

Visit www.Traders.com to find out more! Email: [email protected] • Phone: 206-938-0570

facebook.com/STOCKSandCOMMODITIES

@STOCKSandCOMM

Traders take many paths to reach their destination.

Can your platform get you there?

Search apps and services to personalize the NinjaTrader platform to meet your requirements. Indicators, automated strategies, free tools & more. Explore now at ninjatraderecosystem.com Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.