Multiprojektmanagement 9783834997616, 3834997617 [PDF]

139 0 4MB

German Pages 239 Year 2008

Report DMCA / Copyright

DOWNLOAD PDF FILE

Papiere empfehlen

Strategisches Multiprojektmanagement : Konzeption, Methoden und Strukturen 9783835054592, 3835054597

106 39 3MB Read more

Multiprojektmanagement
9783834997616, 3834997617 [PDF]

Author / Uploaded
Henning Dammer

0 0 0
Gefällt Ihnen dieses papier und der download? Sie können Ihre eigene PDF-Datei in wenigen Minuten kostenlos online veröffentlichen! Anmelden

Datei wird geladen, bitte warten...

Zitiervorschau

Henning Dammer Multiprojektmanagement

GABLER EDITION WISSENSCHAFT

Henning Dammer

Multiprojektmanagement Mit einem Geleitwort von Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden

GABLER EDITION WISSENSCHAFT

Bibliografische Information Der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über abrufbar.

Dissertation Technische Universität Berlin, 2008 D83

1. Auflage 2008 Alle Rechte vorbehalten © Betriebswirtschaftlicher Verlag Dr. Th. Gabler | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2008 Lektorat: Frauke Schindler / Stefanie Loyal Der Gabler Verlag ist ein Unternehmen von Springer Science+Business Media. www.gabler.de Das Werk einschließlich aller seiner Teile ist urheberrechtlich geschützt. Jede Verwertung außerhalb der engen Grenzen des Urheberrechtsgesetzes ist ohne Zustimmung des Verlags unzulässig und strafbar. Das gilt insbesondere für Vervielfältigungen, Übersetzungen, Mikroverfilmungen und die Einspeicherung und Verarbeitung in elektronischen Systemen. Die Wiedergabe von Gebrauchsnamen, Handelsnamen, Warenbezeichnungen usw. in diesem Werk berechtigt auch ohne besondere Kennzeichnung nicht zu der Annahme, dass solche Namen im Sinne der Warenzeichen- und Markenschutz-Gesetzgebung als frei zu betrachten wären und daher von jedermann benutzt werden dürften. Umschlaggestaltung: Regine Zimmer, Dipl.-Designerin, Frankfurt/Main Gedruckt auf säurefreiem und chlorfrei gebleichtem Papier Printed in Germany ISBN 978-3-8349-0941-1

1% 2 (3 )" ) " (3 1 4 5 ) 1 1 6 1 % 5 15 ,1 7 "5 8 49 5 1 5 1 )1 1 5 5 !

: 8 2 ;" " 1% 5 % " 4 5 % 6 "5 (3 " , !) 1 5 1 ? !" # " ( 3 # " ,1 & * ,1 ,1

0 /

* & * * * 0 * F * G * H

A ,1" 3 7 4 # 6 3 (" >

0 & " ! 0 * #1 3 0 0 3 I 0 0 & , ? 0 0 * ? 0 0 0 ? 0 F # = 0 F & !)" 0 F * (3 ' (" 0 F 0 +C !)" 0 G 49 (3

! " # $%

' (

&0 &. ** */ 0F 0.

! F& FF F/ FJ G0 G. G. G/ H0 HG .-

&'

)&

G & ? /. G * ? /J

*

+ ,

-

H & ,1 K1) J0 H * 6 J. H 0 ) C &-0 H 0 &

#9 C &-0

H 0 *

4A C &-/

H 0 0

4 &-J

H F ( &&H F &

@ $)8 &&&

H F *

$1 $)8 &&G

H G ,C 2 &&.

& . / 0

'

. & ( I &*G . * (3 # &0G . 0 # = &F* . 0 &

!)" &F*

. 0 *

+C !)" &F*

. 0 0

(( (" &F0

. F ' 49 (3 &FH

) 1

!-

/ & K1) 2 &G/ & &

3 I &G-

/ & *

# = &G&

/ * K1) 2 &GF / * &

# 7 &GF

/ * *

7 &H0

/ 0 > &H/

- 2 3

&'

J & > ! &.G J * ," ) ") 1 &.J J 0 ) !9 &/&

0

)'

)-

4 %

5 6

7

& & ,1 ,1 &* & * * * 0 * F * G * H * . * /

" " 21" 3 7 % C ,1 1 C " 1 " "% , 4 " (3 " + 3 6 2" 9

0 & " " !

&0 &. **F *H *. 0& 0*

FF

G & >" + 1 J* G * >" + 1 (3 J* H & H * H 0 H F

4" = ," " 4 K1) 9 4 2

J. &-& &&G &**

. & " ? &00 / & " "% ( I ( &G& / * 2 &H*

* & ,% 8" + " 3 0J 0 & # = 7 G* 0 * " " ? GH 0 0 K1 " # G/ 0 F " " !)" H* 0 G # + " +C HJ F & > C /0 G & 7 + J& H &

" A &--

H * % $)8 +%% &&/ . & " " ( I &*. . * #9 C " ( I &*/ . 0 @ 1 ,) " ( I &*J . F K1) @ 4 " ( I &0* . G 4 " " ? &0* . H " ? &0F . . @ 1 ,) " ( I 5 "% 6 &0F . / " " (3 # L4 M &0/ . J #9 C " (3 # &0J . &- @ 1 ,) " (3 # &F. && K1) " (3 # &F. &* " (3 # &F& . &0 " " (3 # L# M &F& . &F " " 1 # = &FF . &G 8 !)" &FG . &H 8 +C !)" &FG

. &. (( (" &FG . &/ " &FH . &J &F. / & ( ( 4 "% ( I

(3 # &G& / * ( ( 4 " # &G* / 0 > 7 &G0 / F > 4 &GH / G > 7 C5

" (3 % &G/ / H > 7 C " 7 " &H/ . + + " 2 &H& / / R2 7 C &H0 / J > 7 C &HF / &- #1 C)1) &.F , & 4 9 5 7 ( I % A &/H , * 4 9 " # &/. & 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( ("

(3 # &J * 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( ("

(3 &J 0 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( ("

+C " &J& F 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( ("

(3 &J& G 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( ("

(3 &J*

H 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( (" (3 # &J* . 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( (" (3 &J0 / 7 C " # = (3 " " "% (( (" (3 &J0 J 7 C " # = (3 " " "% !)" (3 # &JF &- 7 C " # = (3 " " "% !)" (3 &JF && 7 C " # = (3 " " "% !)" +C B" &JG &* 7 C " # = (3 " " "% +C (3 # &JG &0 7 C " # = (3 " " "% +C (3 &JH &F 7 C " # = (3 " " "% +C (3 &JH &G 7 C " # = (3 " " "% # = (3 # &J. &H 7 C " # = ( 3 " " "% # = (3 # &J/ &. 7 C " # = ( 3 " " "% # = ( I &JJ

&/ 7 C " # = " "% # = (3 >1 *- &J 7 C " # = (3 " " "% # = (3 *-&

# " !%5 % 1 1%1 % % 4) 1 1)1 " 71 ) ! 41% + + "

! 1)5 ("5 6 " 1 5 " ;" 2 # " 7 ,1 "% + ) (3 ,5 , 1 4 " # ) 3)1 "5 " +C 5 1 8 3 " 4 L*--HM @ 5 % + 1 7 " 1 "

$ 0 B1 B% 4 1 ," (3 1 " ) " 4 "% (3 "% (3 @ +" B% 4 "% ( 3 " E (

'( )%*+ , ,* - %% ).. %# & / ' 0(*1 , *2 . $( * *2-3 * * 4 . ! ! . 0( 5 66 6% 6%. 6 7#

8+ % &, / "% ).% / 5 %92 +% * : " ; " ; & , 6 . &

9. % .. . * ?.% '.@# # .%++ ; 9 + +* 6.

. ;* : .%. %+

4 $.+ ? 89 +.@+ 9 5 +: 2 8++ 8 . 8++ 8 A+ $ 4? A$4

. !* 9 +: 9.+% .(( ?9 9 9 ".. % * ;* & $ % .

9 9 8.% & %.. / )B -+ . ) '%

A $2 .+ 6.+ ; 9 + C .% * . ;* -. ? ". , '.( D1 *% , 6.

"

( % " 1)

B1 " 4 " % $) 5 % 4 (3 , 4= "% PQ P 3Q (3 + 1 3 (3 7 " ,1 1

K1) % # # 3 , K1 1 1 ) ! " B% + # L*--*M ) @ C " B ,1 # " (3 ,C 5 ,C (3 1 ) % 5 ,1 5 7 8" ! " % ' & 1 " % 4 8 L !)"5 # " +C5 (" (3 M (3 # !S * #% 3 I S " 4 A )1) % )1) %5 1 4 "% # = (3 # 0 # = 1 " 49 " (3 4 8S #2 (3 " % ! C 7 , 3 1 % 5 ,C " (3 #1 " " 5 7 ,1 " % " 5 5 4 (3 7 "5 %1 1 ,1 +" # = %

!

,11 & & 5 ,1

% 4 ( 1 4 * " $ ,1

'

& & 8 ' & - %% &

%

&

+ % 2 15 1 " $ + " 3 4 0 ,1 1 "5 ! " , 8 % " " " % ) 3 4 " " 1 1 1 ) 1 % + 5 R , L&JJGM ) 5 " # >1 " % %5 1 $ ) 3 1" " % " "% " %5 3 % > , 1 (3 " ;" ) % (35 %1 " % 5 ,1% " " (3 1 B ,1 * & ,1" A 2 7 3 % 5 % 1

F ". +*% , % & 5? :

%

% () * +

,1 " ,1 % 5 # 1 " # 3 # " 1 " " 1 ,11 * & % ,1 * * % " 7 # % "%

" ,1 "5 )1 ,1 7 7 , 8 %

,1 * 0 4 " " (3 " 4 1 3 "5 " + ,1 " % % , C " 1 " "% # 5 % " ," R% B " ,1 5 " 5 1 )1 " 7 3 " 5 % ,1 " 1 5 + 1 3 " 1 3 % ,1 * & % K11 2 % " 1 2 9 5 % + " T + % 1 1 1 B% " 4 1 4 % ,% (3 L#2 M 5 1 " 4 #;" " 1

5 + " A5 A ,1 % ) ,1 + % @ " B % 5 " C5 " 6 " ( 3 " 1 % ,1 1) 5 % I C # 3)1 ,C (3 ! 7 B% @ " 5 @ " (% L( M " 4 "% (3 " ,

)@.@ 5

% ,- * .) 2.5

2.2

/

Prozesse und Methoden

Ressourcenallokation

2.3

Management der Projektelandschaft

2.4

Aufbauorganisatorische Maßnahmen

() * 0 % 6 ,1 " > 5 " , 9 6 "% (3 @ % " >1 5 , # ) 3 " 1 " 3 ( 5 " 5 ,1 1 "% 1) " (31

1 + 1 B" ,1 8 ( (3 %5 4 1 11 # " (3 " 1 + 3 R ( ( $ 1 5 % ( " + 1 ,1 ( " !)" (3 %5 # " 1 71

-. 5( /

% ,- * .)

!

9 (3 L((M

1 #1 (3 ! (3 5 % )1 % 8 A % '

#

!

! "

(3 )1 , 6 " (35 )1 6 (3 A 5 % 1 % (" 7C L&JJ/M , (3 (3 @ + 5 +" ( (311 ,1 (3 " # )1 > R5 # 4 L&JJJM % + % (3 $" " (" 7C 1 3)1 # " 1 , 7 (3 " # 1' $ %

#

& '

(

$

!

# '*+, - ! !

)

!

,1 8 ,1 7 L&J.JM % # 1 (3 % 5 1 ( ( " + )1 (C (3

1 + " 7 !" " 5 % (3 ! % 5 1 4 + + > (3

4 +: $1 /26+ $/+ . . '* .(( ?9 9 4( $( GAA $# )( & / )? , +% './>%+ # + "+.+ ? C .% *..9. * 6+. .

4 . '* # ".(. . +.% 4&&!78 9 '7 + 9 71 5 (3 7 7 6 ") " 5 " ," (3 7 71 " "% (3 L " ,1 * FM ,1 8 (3 " 1 %5 1 " "% (3 1 ) C R% 1 +

B1 R 15 7 + " (% " 6 , 1 5 , (3 " 1 L ,11 * HM # 1 7 , %+ # ? . ;* C .% '*.% ;* . &

%$

% () * +

(

) $%

;.

9 # 1

" 9 6 5 1 .- E ") > 9 6 5 3 + " 1 3 + 5 1 1 1"1 )1 " #% ( " & "# ' & 5. *

8 ./>%% 4.+ I2 ;% ? 6J27+. C .% * - )%

'/ I*+ #.% + 6J27+. +% H. 8+9 "@3?. *

8+9 "@3?. * / % %# */. *%+ ?

8+9 "@3?. * , 8+ 8+9 H* :

/'

% () * +

9 . : %+ * $( &

8 .%@+ */. ? 1 >*+/ " #.# 4.. '/+* . 1% ?++ 1 >*+/ "#@.+ +

% ? * .)

//

" "% (3 1 / % 3 " , , % 1 )1 3)1 >1 5 > " % ,1 # J- E R5 # 4 (3 B1 9 + 5 1 0G ! 15 ) , "% 8" + ? % + "5 " 7 (3 " A" % # )1 " 7 ( " 7 8" + % R 4" " # ( , 5 7 "5 ! $ P Q P@% (Q " ) , @ % "% 1 $ 5 1 ! ( ," L" " ("M 1 #1 + " (( % *--F %+ '*.% % %# *..9. ?.% -. 5? & 4( $(

8 'N.+ 9 -. C .% * "# &

/$

% () * +

% ,1 A5 !" , ,1 1 #1 " (" 5 !)" 1 ,% (3 ( 1 1 3 ," % # " 5 1 > (1 1" 7 8 % % B1 5 B % 5 6 (3 @ 1 5 1 %5 1 +C C P6 7Q 3 " 1 6 7 1 " 7 +C C 3 (1 7) " # = +C 1""

% %# !#.% ". / .. /+% '(. ? , '* .+.% 6+ #+ .. .% -.%+ # .+.% $#.. K *. / 9+ '.% K ?++ / 8.%+.2 -+.#.. /> + 9+ / %++ .#+. $#...% ++ # I+ !#.% ".

- . 6+. I*+ #9.% +#.. 6+2 2 (. . 9.+% /.%. * %. I+ 6+. 4 -.%+ .# .% ?++ -+.+ $/#..#+ $1 */++ . />% -.%+ # )%/++ . 9+ I/% $1 + 9 *.9 $8)0 $6 /> '**+ .2 $1 * ++ . I+ 5? 4?. , 4 . D !. !9 E H , " "?. 5% ".% & 6%# (. ; 0.1 % ;+ /. (

)+

%"

' H%

.+

*2 . $(

;O -826+ < " *+/ ;O& < *+/ 4% ;O ). . 5% &

5 4 I M 4" + P6 # Q %

5 % ) $" # ) ,1 >)) ,1 !13 (3 1 7 (35 (" )1 ,1 1 (3 " %5 $ (3 1 1 ( ) !13 1 % 1 " > 7 B% #% " ( 5 # !" $% 1 5 # +C 1 % (" 1 % %) #"

7 + % %

9 1 % (3 1 613 5 ) % E (3 " A > 5 4 B" % 1 7 3 (3 % " > " (3 5 !% " % 1 1 3 (3 )% ! %+ # 6..+ . 8/+. ? A02 (. C .% * 45 65 H+ H+ " 6 5 ) ,

/ 8/+./ # $1 + . /@ 9+2 % / .. %9 % 5 , 7 (3 + ( + 11 C % , 5 , "% % (3 # 1 % + " > ? L&JJ-M5 ) ( 5 % 1

(3 ) +C 1 !" % +"C L*--&M % ,C 5 B" +C A B % 4 B L*--HM 1 1 +C " ! 61 +C 1 "% "

(3 1 " % 1 4" 5 ,1 +C B" "% (3 (3 % , # $" (65

H#2!

% %# @+ ? 8+9 H* ! . $( & " ; & ).. / 4% 5% & % %# + ? 4%

A '%+ . . 8+*.. !2 (. 4 A @ ,P I# "@ A + >* 8 )*@.(. 9 % %+/>% D+ 63 , / ! #(. " ;

$

/ 0 ) )

, $" L&JJHM " > (3 $ ,% ( 15 .- E % + " % ( K1 , > " (3 5 1 5 "% " (35 7 5 5 (5 (3C LB% 5 (" 15 $M 1 % ,1 8 R5 # 4 L&JJ/M5 % ,1 5 # (3 + % " (3 # 5 " "' (3 % 1 X 13 ( C 3 + = 1 X C (3 ( 1 3 ( 1 3 # 1 "5 ,1 % " " (3 #

"" " " % (3 #' 5 (3 +C "5 % % 4" 5 6 " (3 " %

$%./

3 I "% # = (3 # " 1 5

'% %.#% % %# *..9. './>%+ ? 6 ?# &

'.9+ /+ !/ "(. IJ2) 8. +* .% *%. '% ? I+

// * .)(5 % " ,1 0 0 & , ? 5 " ,1 * * 7 1 , ,1 0 0 * ? % # 7 C $ ,5 # 2 % 1 "% (3 # % # " " % 1 . & + &*. 1

==

> #

!

1

" ,) ,1 * * 5 7 ,1 +C 1 (" % " ,) 1 % ? ? + %5 " 7 " 1 ," 5 " $" " " ,1 8 , 1 1 " P Q , # % 1 /- E % 7 5 75 ) # "3 # 1 + % ( L&J//5 &J/J5 *--&M 5 ) (3 5 (3 1 "% % + L*---M # = 7 (31%

;+%+ % %# './>%+ '*.% './>%+ %# .% * 8. % %# $ )% $ ? $ $.

- .% % !F@27 6+

!'

/ 0 ) )

A" 3)1 7 " # ! % 9 + ) $) L*--GM % " 8 " ! " 7 1 H0 8 ! 1") " , > ,1 5 ! "%

" , 7 # ,1 ! "1 > # " $) "% ' " 1 5 )1 5 9 1 4 , " A 5 " /" ; 5 1 " A , , 1 , (? 4 # " #1 + $) B% 5 # % , )1 , , ;" " , , 1% " #2 , % 5 3 ( , "1" 5 )1 % " ( ) (3 ) ) $) 5 , 1 1 % # C 5 A" # )1% % !%1 49 $) 5 ,1 + % " (35 !%1 1 5 1 3 + , %

- %% >+ & / >+ & >+ & .% * " A # = 7 1 (1 7 7 +1 +

IF ". & : IF ". , : 8+9 H* :

!%

/ 0 ) )

' H%

.+

.% /

8+9 H*

R? -. #9 0G 7 1% , # , 1 5 > ? 1' 7 "5 $ 5 7 5 !5 > 5 @1 5 K1 , #1 5 % @ @ L&JJ*M " I C5 1 ? , @

)+. ! . & && * H* "9 & 5 45 65

4 + . 6. ? 45 65 #+ .% % .. . @ 6 H% % IF:%+ . + /> . .+ I#% ? -2 5*.%+ % A 28/+...+ % %# , - 9 . 6 ? ?.% ' 9 /++: ?*.. 9. +%. /> .. %% )?# .% % %# .*. '* ? , .9 =*.% 45 65

!

/ 0 ) )

5 , + A" 5 % 4" " ? 5 *& 4 I 6 " C 1 # > " 1 1 0 * + GH % B1 ,1 A @ 3 8" + 5 4" " ? + 1 L&JJ/M G0/ ! + 1") I " C % 1 , 1 " ? " " ? " 35 "% PR1X ,Q -5/J % 5 3 " 1 0J5.W 9 L*--&M 1 I ,% " 1)1 &&& +C ! > ? , 1 " # "5 %1 " " 5 @ ≥ 0, 67 , " % A " + L&JJHM ) J- E C L M "% + 5 > 5 ? + " 1 1 ! &.J , 1 " ? 5 &&/ % "% 7 &G-- , L,M ,

1 # " 1") 7 " , 1 15 " "5 % L*- M 1 ") ! 1 8 %1 " " 5 ) A 0- , + , # 1 1 &G , 1 ? )1 5 '

- > ; &

> ;

$ 5 613 5 $1%) 7

?; " &

>5 +

4 + '* -.%+.+ + 9 .* D.2 (. 5 # A/.3@ %/>% I .% '* 9 & -@ 4C A/.3@ ? + + ?9 '. 9 % ?/+ -+.+ . 4 A/ % 2 + +%+.# 9 -> 9/>% A/ # +:.?.@. .% D*. , :

// * .)(5 ; &

!!

7 "5 %5 7" 5

> ;

+ &

1 5 5 (" 4

" B1 ,1 1 " % + 5 ? % 1 + 1 % $" L&J/0M ? "" % 5 " , %5 ,1 % " % 1 " ," + @ 5 4" +5 ") 1

I (3 @ % " # " @ $" "% % + 5 3 7 1+* *#%+.9. D+@+% I.@+ *.%* % %# './>%+ * 9. : ; ) :

!"

/ 0 ) )

' H%

.+

6..+ A/.3@

45 65

D./..+ 8+*.. . 8#.

0 +

;O& #% A/?@ ;#* I.@% 5.* "% . -. 8.%+.* A% + $@#. $@+# !@+% I.@+ I@..% D@% )%#+ 8#++ I+%* ;@ + ;>#% )%#+ )?#

+ +

+ 7*1 ?@ *9>+ ) ( ) & D++ %% * + (& )?# 6%9 )%#+ I.@+ 4+ (&

( &

J .

D ,

A* I.@% $@+# "..# 4.+ + 1 "% (3 % L (3 >1 M >1 "% (3 @ 61 >1 $ ! %5 9 % 8" + 5 (3 >1 > % ,1 " 1 ,1 * F % + + % R B1 + L*--FM "% >1 G. #% 1 5 3 % 1 > "% (3 " % ( 15 %1 P + 9Q ,C " # " ,1 8 1 1 ,1 L*--&M5 " " >1 % % 4 P)1 >1 Q " "% 6 " "' 5 4= "% % R " (3 7 ,1 " (3 ! 5 (3 !5 " 7 1 %5 % + 5 PR " (3Q " 1 (3 >1 1 , " %' !)" (3 " 4= #1 4 L*---M5 " 5 (3 " # # L*--&M 8 C " + 5 "% !)" (A1 B% ( 1 1 A @ " % 1 5 # = % + % @ " >1 % !)" R >1 + ) ,1 Y 5 + + % L*--0M , % 5 !)" I >1 +" I "% 6 %

% %# $ $.

4 ? > 5% >*.# 8%*+ ? $ /> .% % * + 026+2#+ / $1 /+ % .% C .% * * 4 ".% / I*.% ".% & . "+. . 0%% 5( 6: , + $( , 9 9 D+ !(

%

D+ !( & ".. , 8. 6 / + , 0% G

G

"'

/ 0 ) )

N 8 " 5 % 7 7 +C " ,1 8 @ " % ) " L*--&M5 @ 5 " ) ! " , 1 R 3 L&JJ&M5 $ ; L&JJ.1M + L&JJFM5 7 #1 2 R " + " 1 5 ! )" ( " 7 !" 1 B% (3 (3 % 7 1 1 >1 = # 1 3 " 5 "% # 2 , 1" % (3

( # " (3 15 " ) (3 5 " > 1 ," (3 " % > % 5 (3 7) 1" % !)" 1 1 "5 % @ > P4 1 Q 3) (3 % @ %

)1 5 "% !)"5 7 8 L7 R M5 !) "5 )1 , 1" % # L M A 5 " 4 # 1") " , 9 " "% 5 " 4 L*--FM5 L&JJ-M R 4 L&JJGM5 ,

. 4%( ? +. & ! * ". $ "+ +. ? 0 '+

+ 4# '%( 6"(

4 ".% /

/ C )

"

!)" 4 #1 " 11 5 = % %5 1 5 1 "% " !)" " % # K1 % " " !)" % 1 0 F + 1 7 " #% " !)" 1 " 1) #15 % 1 1 15 " # #2 (3 1% 5 #1 > % ) ,1 5 + ) ! 5 % " 5 7 )1 ( R , K1 7 7 3 1 5 ) + 5 (3 2 % "

1 # % 5 7 " ) , 1 % ) ( 7 )" % 1 4" (3 1 (" 7 5 !)" 3 P@ 1 Q

% " ( ,1 "5 ) !)" 3 1 ' 71 ) 35 > + (3 1 + (35 " # 1 # % 1 7 ("

% %# './>%+ ? 8. .9 6.. # ? . $ $. , 9 G

% %# './>%+ * !3 $9

)

'./>%+ # ) . 026+. . 9 .+.% $2 + C .% * )1 I )1 ,

8.

"%

/ 0 ) ) ' H%

- . '*

4 "2 .%

;O& $+

'.9 + 026+2 #+ / 8/+ ? 82 9 +.+

"2 .% &

;O & $+

AC .% 8/+./ /> ; 9 2 +

.

$ $.

,

9

G

026+2#+ ,- . / # ,// .& . #

) . I.@ % . ? +* " 89 +T $ #.# ,- . 0 ,% .& 4 8/+ $ 9 + . 0 D . 026+. . 9 .% ).. # I/>++ +. A.

,1 . 2 / % &

4 %+ 6* 9 # I/>++ +. .% + .% # I/>++ .+. 9 9+ ).. *+. $ # # % ,1 . 0 , .& D $ .+ 9+ ).. / #% T " 8.%+ ;O&& 1 5 @ 5 R L&JJJM + " , + 5

.F ! 5 ,1 "% ( ( % , 5 ) ,1 %5 1 15 " "

6 (" ,1 C L*--&M ") 2 %5 (" )1 , 1 ' % % 1 7 (" 5 % % 7 )1 % % % (" ( $ K1) " #

" A B1 #1 + (" "

".. % * , 5. 5. 5 % %# 0 6(2.. 4 .% =*>/+ . - 2 . 9 !/ 8-' -' ?+ I+ %# 0 6(2.. 4 ? 0 6(2.. ?9 7.+ +/ 92 / '* ? 7% ! #>

/ C )

"!

" 5 (" ( 9 5 P1Q % 15 P Q % ( (" > # ) " 3)1 (3 " " % 1 % 15 % % (" ( $ 5 (" " " A" 1 (" 1 % # > 1 . &F 1

=!= 3@% (

, @" # = # " +C 7 3 1 % 1 ) , 1 " +C 1 "% $ > % 5 % +C 1 1 4 >1 1 = % ,% +C 6 ! 1 " > % # = +C (% " (3 ( , 1 % +C " 7 6 5 1 1 $1 L&J.0M 1 % 1 $1 +C " "5 ) #)) % 1 % " 1 1" % 5

8 9/>% # %.% 8+ ?.% -.%+.%2 + .% 6..+ + ? A/..(. . +.# %* +* ":

*% , : % %# '* ? 4 . $ - 4 . & A?. H? ". "* & / 03.

""

/ 0 ) )

" 1 4 4 ) %+ %# C .% * . )9 . 92 . , *J %+ "

- 4 . & , 5. 4 $ 9 +.#.. 9 %@C+ . ? >/ 3# ? /.?*2 '/+* +.% I+ "/. & "/. 6.

/ C )

"#

# (% % " (" 1) %5 1 " # " +C % 2 # $ " 35 # = +C A " ,1 8 + @ L*--GM % + 1 % # = +C B% (A1 B , % " L*--FM 1" %

! 1) 5 %1 , 1 ,% "% % %5 # = # " B% ,1 "

1 " +C A #25 1 #2 % % $" " 3 1") (A1 #2 1 #2 1 1 % 1) , "" ,%5 (31 )5 +C "1 (31% +C " , (3 +C "" ,% (= (3 1 (3 (3 1 5 3 )1 5 K11 " 1% 1 # " # 1 8 > % + A

1 0 G # 1 1 "5 # " +C 1

# = 1 1 4 =) 1 "5 % # ) +C 1 ("5 6 " % 1 5

! ,& 4 6..+ ?/+ + 9 !/ . A . /+ ? 2 .%% '9F+% ?+*S A? .% -+ .@ -+ ;%#>+ D 4%/>%+ '.9+ 9 A? .% -+ 2 ?+% 4 '#% '9 /> ?** 9 # ++ . '.9+ # *> .%+ I+ 5+ ! & : 5+ ! & , 8 */. +? 8: . A028.#. / 89 +.+.%9+ 9 %9. 8 =** # '* .% 6..+ 8: ?@ ? A02 (. *.%@/+ +* 45 65 ?

"$

/ 0 ) )

B" +C A

,1 +C ? 5 ? , ? )1) % % # = +C (3 #

3@% ( +% @% . 8: (. / ...% 8/+. # >*>/ . */. /% . 8: % # #% % %# + '++(.9(

/ C )

' H%

4F+

"&

.+

&, %+ '*.% +% A/ %# C .% * ' !+ *% , 0%. , I I ,

% %# './>%+ * !+ / ". +*% 59. )B ? % %# . '* ? 7% ".% . %+ . 9 **% "%. %. /+/ I+ ".% , ".% 7% , 7% ,

## (3 # 5 # 2 % "% !)" 3 I !)" # + 6 5 3 ) 6 ,

5 , I 3" A I 7 " %

$?

+ - ; !

B ! "

(> ;

(%

"

% " (

, % " (

, $" (@

# = " 5 ,1 + Z L*--0M %% , )

#$

F ) 1 "% (35

" " " ;

@ =

, % " (

, $" (@

#" 5 " 5 + # 1 49 $1 L&J.0M 5 49 1 " ," + "% (3 5 (" % % , % 5 1 9 1 + 5 " " 2 # "3 1 5 # = +C 49 " B % 1 5 % % # = R, +C R1 +C 1 ,1 # " (3 +%*+/ $1 /+2$#.. *.# .? 8N.. / 61 +2R@ * $1 /28/+ ! 6 #% I#+ $1 .+ .? + -.+ ? $1 /+#.. /

61 +2R@ *#9 * $1 /28/+ ! H .+@+ A?.%+ % + % P4 Q 15 K11 )1 " 5 (" 3 1 " >%

7 % "% $) % >

'./>%% .%*+ I > ? L .2 (2'.@#M C .% * *. , 6%

/>% .%*+ # -.%+.% C .% * 4 : % , :

$$

! + * B

5 C " " 7 " % > % 5 % # 4 " 3 15 #1 ! 1 % # + " # 1 1 1 ,1 " " 3 #1 % 1 +% # 4 % J- ) % )5 1 ( %' R (3 L," (35 49 " (3M (" 5 7 (3 " # " , " +C L, +C5 # " +CM 8 " (35 % 1% @ > $) ) #1 + " (3 4 5 ! # 8 )1) > %5 % , " #1 " 3 " " )1 (3 )1 A I (3 A % > 1 ," 7" , " % % ! 1 ," +C "% (3 ? 1 1 # 1 1 % $ ) #% ,11 0 & + FF " +" ! 1 # ," 3 1 " " 3 % % 1 % ,1 " 3

!% , D G*

$&

9 5 ? + 1 "5 , ) , 1 B 1 *--G ) " 1 5 7 " A" 5 ! 3 % ! 1 9 " +1" ) ( ) 15 A "

1 % ! 7 ) + " % 5 % + K1 6 P$ ) (3 L$(MQ P(3 L(MQ % # )1 % 5 )1 + )1 , B1 1 ,? 4 % 1 ! 3% 4 1 5 + 4" " (35 E *--* 1 *--G % + % @ #1 &&0F ! 5 [ +% " + ! + " 5 % 0- ) 3% ! ) " "5 3% 7 )1 % % )1 P 3Q ) @ 5 1 " 1% % ! 1" % ! 1 " + "5 *- (3 " 5 % 5 3% ! (1 3 + 5 % 3% , 1... >*>/ 9 . ). .% . %9.2 % % ++ /> %.. . 9 I+ %# " & /

&'

! + * B

) ") 1 1 &.W % 9 ( E ! "% 1% 62'(. ; 9 +.25 / '/ .. . I+%. ? .% #+ . .. 8+*.. .% . '*%@++ # ?9 6..% ? A # . %9. .. '.9% . ). .% + # .. * /++ . 026+. *% 9 .. . 9+ . 0+.+.%@/ ?? . - . % / >*+ 0% + I+ ! #(. : -+% . . '* >*+ $1 /28/+ % 8.% % " * 9 A/ # '/*+ . 4.#. C .% '*.%

!% , D G*

&

).

!@C+. - .*#%+

8.%

I. .%@/./>% %. 5 $1 + A7 07 5 .+.%. + '*+. %. A0T A?..+T +.% $+ ! / $1 6+ ! / $1 7Q A0 $1 5 $67T $1 . $+26+ $1 0 $1 +

"

1 * * 9 1 *.W ! 9 +%" ,11 G * 1 K11 )1 $+% I9+ ? 652 %@# .% -% . , &&

&

" ) , 3

1 7 )1)5 1 " > %+ %# C .% * -% . , & " & & . &

6 ,

-( 4 / , / E %. & , / % %# 0 & ).. D9 9 "2 .@# /> '4-2 %@# 9 1% />% % . * %* +.%@ # .* #?@..+ 8+*.. I+ E E 0 & % %# './>%+ * 8/ 0*.%

8 8/>%+ 0% +* 6

0 & ( , :

"% ?*

&#

a)

b) ȟ

Ș1 Ȝ11

Ȝ12

Ș1

Ȝ13

Ȝ14

Ȗ11

y1

y2

y3

y4

İ1

İ2

İ3

İ4

X1

Ȗ12

X2

Ȗ13

Ȗ14

X3

X4

: * , 7 C) 7 ( 456 0 H@ 4&&77 +

)

"% " % % 4 5 " 5 " "%

86 6 B 6

$" 1 1 @ 1 "") 3% 1 L$

5J

A 8+.% 9 ? L8: A.M +.% % 1% & !*+ +

&$

" ) , 3

H *M 5 5 1 " %5 % 1" % + ,1 1 " P9Q P"" 1Q 1" % , 2 PR 1Q % @ Lξ M 1) 5 R 1 % % " C 5 9 1 " 5 9 1 1 =

LH *M

yi = γ11 x1 + γ12 x2 + · · · + γ1n xn + ξ1

, % + +" " 8 = % #

, 35 ,1 = = %5 1 " % K1 1 , " !5 "5 % % 1 " " % 1 1 ,1 K1 ) " " %5 ) % % 8 ! $ ,% 2 " %+ I.%@+ 6+.* # +% C .% H?. & 6 9

"/ , J) ;

'/

)1 + 1 #

1 ," (@+ E 1 1 %5 (@+ +# ," 1 " #1 ) *C# . 9%++ 8-'26 C# . % %# % -% . , & : " & /

"/ , J) ;

'&

" A" # 1 7 1 $ 5 " 5 % 2( #

% .. I# - "?# / CJ 9 F% 4. #?@ . - 5 !*+ + *.%* #9 .. . -25 2" .2 +. " . χ2 24:#. . *+> . UB+ 1% % 9 U%% *+> +* % 9 & -25 2" I#+ % %# % +## .9 4. %/ ,

" ) , 3

)5 " 9 # " L*--&M K1) " A 5 % 9

4 K1) " A # 4 1 , $ 1 " 5 % 1 35 R

I " " ) + ) 1 % , R

I 1 + 1 + %+ * H 0. '# . / .. I9+ . A .. + 892 + *2(. . * 1% '#% +% '#% F+% '.@++ . 6. +.# 9 4 .% %* 1% %.% '2 #% -@ *2 *. / . # .. .% *2 +C #.. % %/>% 4 8/>%+ %+ >* A . .%: '*%/ I+ %# '. / .9 % & 8 !+ ? %+ , C .% * H 0. : Yˆ = (B1 + B3 Z)X + (B0 + B2 Z) Yˆ = (B2 + B3 X)Z + (B0 + B1 X) . % +" % A % . + % 3 ( 1 5 " 1% 5 4 "% 7 9 )+...+%+ F /+ I+ k2 − k1 N − k2 − 1 -%.+ 4 -20. 20. . "Q# B3 / %* .% 8+*.. I+ H H 0. 4. @.. .% $ .+* * 4%2 />%+ )+...(. 7 L02 "M .+9@% 9 4 +#+ 0 3 +* 8: .@ . A .. '. % & 8 D.+ I* 9 ?+ 69 ? )+.. .*% 9 8 9 6F+% *.% D2 .+ I* 8 ./>%% .%*+ ?.% A..@# * # .2 . "Q# C .% " ? ' .

' . ,

"! ; 2)

%

% > 7 9 " % 5 1 LXZ M 1 % 5 3 5 1 1 Y 1 " " 7 C % B 7 $ H . 7 ;" B1 " @ 9 A C K1) P 3 I Q L,1 . &M P(3 #Q L,1 . *M # = L. 0M L. FM :

*./

+ ( I % = C2 .% - (. 9 '67 +.# %. & , / 4 @.. .% $ 4+ '2A+26J *.

%"

# ?* : )

) C 4 9 " %

, ,1 ) L+ 1 , &M

= 5 % #9 C % , 7 (9 7 L4 \ FM " # "5 7 5 I 1 ! ," " 9 5 % + ( ,C #9 " + A @# .% ++.+ 0R A+. %.% .% + D.* #9.% . $1 AR

I.@% AR

AR , AR

+ AR

AR AR

' @ AR

AR AR ,

).. .2 'R R@ 'R

'R 'R 'R & 8 +..+ 8)"5

$$8 $$8

8. %.% .% + 0.# >* . $1 .%/ '/ ? $1 2 ./ . /% .% #+/* $1 ..2T )../ .. /% .% A # 4 '/*+ +/ $1 ..2T )../ . ?.@% / $1 ..2T )../ *.# .% %#+ %#+

) * (5 , 1 L4" M # 1% 5 5 > ,1 5 % 1 I 5 > 4 % 1 # % # " 1 . &0 > " % 1 9 C ) 1 + ,5 9 % 7 1 C 1 R1X , -5.* GF5/.W " "

4. ? ?+.%+ C# . / 2 ? A/ %# C .% '*.%

#% .)* (

/#

! N 4 # ,1 1") (3 # " )1)5 + ,11 1 " + ,6+ 1 % 1 = 5 %1 (3 # 4 "%

6 # " , #1 ,6+ 4 "% 1 " 6..

)6)

2- K 2- - (. 7+ - (. 7+

-A K

χ2

K & & ,

χ2 24:#.

/

Δχ2

K K K , K

/

K K K K

.)* (

-

A

I.@+ -+ . A .

4%.%% $1 /+

6$6R & %+ '*.% % %# A. 999 2./9 / .9 % ?

#/ C )

/

1 > " % 1 % 4 61 +%% *50 5 % 4 8 ) P ,1 Q % 1 L 1 . &H + &FGM % +C !)" 9 )1 1 A

&==

6 (3 ("

$" " 1 " = > ,1 " % ,1 C L*--&M % " R L*--*M ") 2 $) % C 8 7 1 C )1 ) 1 " 5 11 -5H* L+(++M 1" % 11 -5.G L,6+M +%% )1 " C " (( (" 1 . &. " " 1 .-5&JW R1X , 1 -5/J + 5 + " % 1 + " " (( (" 5 1 ) 5 %

# ?* : )

-

A

I.@+ -+ . A .

026+2 #+

06

4. 026+ ?. ? + D + . $1 /.

. .% !2 -#2).. /> 4%/>%+ . 61 26+. # I/>++

*/+ . Q# 61 26+ $#.. %@ .% .*. /+. )+

. # ) $1

/ * $*/@ 8. #% 8.%+

06 06 06 & 06

$$62 $#../.+

$$6 $$6 $$6 $$6 $$6

A02 (.2 #+

.% #9 ?.% $%. $$62$#.. 4 $%.2=*++ /+ % J# -+* .

4 $$62$#.. . @#. .#C# 4 $$62$#.. 9 ? + +* A.+. />% 9 . $$6 .% . %

A0* D+ ? $1 # .+.% D A0* ./ / $1 A0# ? * $1 2 A0# ? * 9+ . $1 /. A0# ? * '/ + ? )..28+@.. )..2"N A0# ? * '/ + ? 1 >*+/ $1 #2"N A0# ? * 1 >*+/ ). *9+

) * 7 L1 M )5 % 7 C " #2 " L $M

1 / G + " #2 7 " L $7M 1 / H + &H- 1

0,14

2 Radj

&

∗∗∗

6,01

∗∗∗

13,63

0,20 ∗∗∗

0,03∗∗∗

0,20

0,14∗∗∗

−0,06

9,96

0,14 ∗∗∗

0,04∗∗∗

0,16

0,20∗∗∗

−0,05

0,38∗∗∗

-A0

6,91

0,10 ∗∗∗

0,03∗∗

0,12

0,17∗∗

0,00

0,32∗∗∗

E;

7,89

0,11 ∗∗∗

0,08∗∗∗

0,13

0,15∗∗∗

−0,06

0,13∗∗∗

$$8

3,65

0,05 ∗∗

0,03∗∗

0,06

0,12∗∗

−0,05

0,16∗∗

-A0

* .) 3

1 ; 8

9,57

−0,17

0,31∗∗∗

$$8

06

2,22

0,02 ∗

0,03∗∗

0,04

0,14∗∗

0,01

0,07

E;

$$6

9,80

0,14 ∗∗∗

0,10∗∗∗

0,15

0,19∗∗∗

−0,17

∗∗

0,10∗∗

$H8

$$8 O $1 /28/+ -A0 O +.% - E; O (+#+ $H8 O 4%.% $1 /+

p ≤ 0, 01,∗∗ p ≤ 0, 05,∗ p ≤ 0, 10

0,08

0,02∗∗

ΔR2

F

0,10 0,03∗∗

0,15

R2

∗∗∗

0,14∗∗

0,11∗∗

−0,06

∗∗

0,17∗∗

0,27∗∗∗

+C 1 %5 >1 % 5 " "2 1 1 "% (3

% )1 +C A % )1 (3 (31 % B " % " 15 % 11 (3

R 5 R O R + O + ,C L*--FM' 9 " ' % !& LFM5 &*&/

%'$

H

R5 4 O 3 L&JJ&M' $ % 7

+ $& ! 0

-

+ (5

R5 L&JJ/M' + (3 -& E 4 ( L M' $ % D" EC 5 + 5 R,5 *.GF

$%-

R5 # 4 O + ( 7 O R 7% L&JJ0M' C " C' C C % - 7 L*M5 J0G R5 # 4 O R 7% L&JJ*M' C ' % -& ? L*--*M5 J*/ R 5 O 1 L&JJJM' (3 9 C 2 C C 6

' !' L*M5 &/.&J/ R5 E O ( RO + $ O @ + , L*--0M'

0 ,= 5 @% #1 , 5 %5 B% EC R15 L&JJ/M' (3 " " -& @ CO E + (C L M' $ & R ( 5 R5 (,5 !+,5 0H0HJ R5 7 O + #O # 4 L*--&M' ( % ' C C '*+ % LFM5 0H& 0/- R5 7 $ L&JJFM'

$ B% ( ( L&M5 0&F

C $

-(

%

R5 7 $ O + #O # 4 L&JJ/M' ( 7^ ( ' % ! LFM5 *-00 R5 7 $ O + #O # E 4 L&JJ/1M' $ ( $5 B% Z

$ %

A

R5 7 $ O + E # L*--0M' 6 % ' % !* L0M5 F/G/ R5 7 $ O + E #O # 4 L*--FM' 1 B(

' % !& L&M5 0&F0 R5 7 $ O + E #O # 4 L*--F1M' 1 B(

' % !& L0M5 G-H- R5 7 $ O + E #O # 4 L*--FM' 1 B(

' % !& LFM5 F0GG

H

%'&

R5 7 $ O + E #O # E 4 L&JJ.M' ( B% ( ' @ @5 ( ' %( !7 LGM5 &H&J R5 7 $ O + E #O # E 4 L&JJ.1M' ( B% ( ' @ @5 ( ' %( !7 LHM5 F0G* R5 7 $ O + E #O # E 4 L&JJJM' B% ' ( C $ - % * LFM5 0000G& R5 7 $ O + E #O # E 4 L*--*M' 6 " ' 1 ' % !' LGM5 *&*. R5 7 $ O + E #O # E 4 L*--*1M' 6 " ' 1 ' % !' LHM5 F0FJ R5 7 $ O + E #O # E 4 L*--0M' ( ' B% ( + -& ( O , $ ;O + +C L M' $+% 6" A $ + E C ^ +5 5 00&0HG R5 7 $ O # 4 L*---M' B% 15 % ' 2 ' % ! L*M5 &/00 R5 7 $ O # E 4 L&J/.M' B% ' % % C $ - % !5 &HJ&/F R5 7 $ O # E 4 L&JJGM' X R + B% ( C $ - % LGM5 0.F0J& R95 R O ( L&JJFM' 6 % C

0 + C ' LGM5 *&*H R%5 E 4 L*--&M' $ 01 G $ 5 5 B% Z5

E(

- 0

R%5 4 ' 3 0 + 2 %( ! C 5 + , L&JJFM R%5 4 L&JJ.M' , C " 0 ) L*M5 &G.&.G R%5 4 O E 71O E % L*--HM' R C' , Z 7 -& ( >O $ L M' D - %( 5

- & 5

H # + 5 &*-&0/

%

-

%'

H

R5 # O 7 X, L&J/0M' B% EC

5

(

5

R5 ( O + O E L&JJHM' 1 C A AC C $ % L&M5 &H*J R5 , O 4 B1' +C5 5 ' 1 C 0&G- J- + + L&JJ-M R5 , O 4 B1 L&JJ/M' " D %

($ %(

(5 B% Z R5 , O 7 +1C L&JJGM' RC5 7 O E $ L&JH0M' #% R 25 B E

%

(5 B% Z

( 5

5 7 @ O 7 @ L&J/FM' ' , % 1 " ' 0 6 *5 &J&*00 5 7 @ O 7 @ L&J/HM' 6 " ? 5 % LGM5 GGFG.& 5 L&JJ&M' 6 " ' , C 2

% C ! L0M5 GGGGJ- 5 O $ $) L*--GM' # 3 # 1 ? + $" LGM5 &H 5 O $ $) L*--HM' I 3 1 $" )5 &. 5 O $ $)O 4 % = + #1 C ,% @ ) 1% 5 1 4 L*--0M # 5 4 O 1 " L&JJGM' , ' (

1 C > !75 /F&&- #15 + L*--HM' + ' ( - % ' ) L&M5 &*-

C

#5 + O 4 , , L*--0M' (1 3

3 - C $ % LHM5 0JGF-* #5 7 O 7 $ L&JJJM' @ (3 +C % * L&M5 G*HF

C $

-(

#%5 O , E1 L*--0M' C'

3 S - C $ % LHM5 F-0F-J #%5 O , + 4? ' C

3 9' R=

( ( *--&'. + + # L*--&M #%5 O , + 4? ' #9

(3 9 ( ( *--&'&/ + + # L*--&1M #5 L*--&M' @ " $" ( G B 5 " 1 1% $15 1

H

%/

#5 L*--*M' + % ' % - C % ' ! L&M5 &F- 1 5 @ 7 O O 7 R RO # E + L&JJJM' # ! #9C ,C (C 7 $ %

! L0M5 *.**JJ 35 + O Z Y L*--HM' R " ' L/M5 &&GG&&HJ

%

5 $ L*--HM' 6 1 + ' # +1 ? B 5 ') L1M5 H.// 5 L&JJ&M' $ % - L0M5 &F/&GH

- C

5 E O + L&JJ.M' C ' + -& 1 L&JJJM5 F0JF/G C5 + E O R + L*--HM' B ? -& $ O 7 L M' 4 & , (1 5 5 @ O 6 + L*--&M' &- L/M5 *-*&

C

D 6

'

5 7 O 7 L&JJ*M' R , % 9 " 3 C % ) L*M5 *H. *JF 5 R O @ L&J/&M' # + #? % !1 1 1 # C %" ' ) L&M5 0JG- 5 # O , L&JJ0M' >1 6 #;" " 1 -& # O , O C L M' ? (

G " @ +5 &G- 5 + O , E + L*---M' 3 -@@@ @ % !& L*M5 *G/*H/ 5 E O $ + L&JJGM' # R R 6 " 0 * LFM5 00.0FJ $% 5 > ' @ : ? C , % I -& O - 2 - > )-2-> NL#, L*--FM $1 5 E L&J.0M'

+ 2 3 0

$ 5 7 L&JJ/M' + 7

)75 /-0

, C

%

H

$' (3 ( +% L*--0M $ 5 L*--0M'

%

+

4% ,

$ 5 O O + O ( , L*--0M' , + , , ' R @5 C5 R % !) LJM5 &&-0&&** $)5 O + +O , 4 L*--GM' = 3 C 3 - C $ % 5 0HH0.0 $)5 $ O @ L&JJ/M' C (3 $" 7% $" " - L*M5 0&F $5 E 4 O $ E (O Z > L*--0M' ( C' A 1A C @ + ! L0M5 *JG0&0 $% 5 O B E % L*--*M' , # 7 ( % !) L.M5 J0/JG0 $ 15 R $ O R R L*--GM' ,C ' C C C -& E @ %O R $ $ 1 L M' 5 69 ! C (5 .&/J $5 O 7 +1CO @ L*--&M' 5

C5 A % - ' ! L*M5 &-J&*J $5 E O ( BO , (O 6 L*--&M' + % 2 - % 7 LFM5 *0F*F* $5 O , R1 L*--0M' % 9 E ' $ * LGM5 F*.F0J $5 7 L&J/0M'

5

@% #1 ,

$5 7 @ L&JJ-M' R ,C R ,C ' + @ 4% % 6 ' ' L&M5 000J $ 5 , L&JJ.M' , 6 " , A R 0

) LHM5 /J.J*G $ 5 , O $ + L&JJGM' A %' 5 0

* L*M5 &/0*&F $5 O > L&JJ&M' 6 ? 3 % & L*M5 &F-&GH $%5 7 O E , RO L*--FM' C #

+ #? ' C %" LFM5 G&JG*J

H

%!

$ ;5 , L&JJ*M' # I X ! + A C $ - % - L0M5 &.&&/. $ ;5 , L&JJ.M' #2 (3 ( R ( RC C %" ' ! L&M5 *F0G $ ;5 , L&JJ.1M' ( , % ' ! 1 1 C $ - % ! LHM5 F*JFG/ $ ;5 , O E 7 L&JJHM' 7^ ' , % C C $ - % L0M5 &J&*&G $ ;5 , O , ( L&JJHM' ( , + 3' C $ - %( LHM5 F./FJH $ ;5 , O , @ ( L&JJ0M' , C $ - % 7 LFM5 *J& $" 5 + L&J/0M' I "" -& E O $)O + $" O ! L M' @ G(

; B ! - ! @1 & ,= 5 E R 5 &FF&.0 $ 5 O + EO , + L&JJHM' C 2 ' - % LFM5 &..&J& $ 5 O , + L*--GM' , C ' 2 - % ! LGM5 .H&..J $) 5 E ' %"

'

" 5 @ "(

& @

%"

$3 5 B L&JJGM'

" G ; B

! + $ L*--GM

6 @

0 ,= 5 $%

$5 , O L&JJHM' R 7^ C( $ - % 5 FJ.G&& $5 , 4 O + ( 73O @ L&J/HM' , C 7^

C %" '75 .&. $19 5 O + L&JJ&M' 2

C " 2% ! L&M5 GJ.0

5 L*--GM' #9C ,C 5 C $ 5 + A % 6 ' !7 L0M5 0-00*J 5 E O 7 1 L&JJHM' +C ( ' , # % ! L.M5 &-F0&-HF

%"

H

?5 O 4 + (% L*--&M' % C '*+ % L&M5 *.F- 5 O R 4 1O , 7 L&J/*M' ,C 5 A % ) LHM5 H-FH*- 5 + O # E O B "O 7 R L*--0M' X % C $ - % 7 L&M5 **0H 5 E L&JJ&M' >

* LFM5 FG&.H 5 E L*--FM'

-

?

B 6 (

0 ,= 5

C5 @ , O B $ L*---M' E +5 " , , C 5 6 + @4 % & L&M5 &0G 5 ( O # # 4 " L*---M' $" " 8 F ,= 5 $1 5 1

@

D (

5 O +"C L*--&M' C + B% ( , + 6 C %" ' ) L0M5 0H*0.G

5 O O @ 4 L&JJJM' 7 , 3 7 # - C $ % & L0M5 &/&&// 5 , O , E C L&JJJM' , 7^ 3 -@@@ @ % !* L*M5 &G/&.- 5 R '

% " & 9

$"

G ! ' < (

! 4 L*--*M

L M' $ 0 B 5 ' 1 ! C (5 (5 4 E O 7 R R L*--0M' 7 +% X # ,C : L&M5 &0F0 (5 $ O 7 4 L&JJ*M' , C C " C % - - L*M5 JJ&*G (15 O B +1 L&JJJM' C 7 ' C - C % & LHM5 HFHHH& 7 5 , O + + @O 7 L*--*M' , C + ' , ,C - ' L&M5 G-HJ 735 O B O E R R L&J/HM'

13 2 ' , C %( C - L*M5 0F.0.* 715 $ O + L&J//M'

% 3(0 & "

6 ; (

0

"

(5 +

7 85 L*--FM' 4 -& $ +C & LFM5 G00GGH +5 + O 7 O 6 $ , L&J/&M' A C 1 C %" ' )5 *J&0-- +5 , E L*--&M' 6 + " A 3' #9 C % !& L0M5 0JFF&F +5 , E O ' (3 # ' ( C 7 -& ( L M' $%- ' 2 @ L*--FM +5 , E O O 6 @ CO , R " L*--&M' (3 +' , + R E ' $ ! LHM5 HJJ.*G +5 , E O , O O + @ CO @ L*--*M' 7A 3 ' 5 C '*+ % L*M5 &&&&*H

H + 5 , L&JHJM'

%%&

(5 R1 5 ,

+ 5 , L&J.*M' 1 C -& R $ O 7 7 L M' + 0 &* 4 / B (1 R C5 &H&&.H + 5 7 L&JJFM' % % C % % C ' L0M5 &HJ&/J + 5 4 O + RO + , L&JJGM' " ' % % C ) L&M5 .*0 +5 Y O C O E + L&JJ.M' , ? ' , 7^ 5 5 C $ - % ! L&M5 0GF. +5 Y O # (C L&JJ.M' , C % ' E ! + C %" * 5 &&/ +5 O + # O R 7% L*--FM' ( , 6 " + R9 ( % '7 L&*M5 &H.F&H/J +%5 L&J/&M' + +C' , R9 +C -@@@ @ % ) L0M5 .& +5 + O E $ L&JJFM' S C C 1 C $ ( &- L&M5 /.J. +5 E O 7O E ( L&JJ/M' ( 7' 4% 1 C

$ C % +5 O ,C%C L*--FM' ' R C 1 C 2 - !! L*M5 .J/H +% 5 L*---M' %

C $ - % & L0M5 *-/**- +% 5 L*--0M' R 3 ' % 3 2 % C @ % 7 LFM5 0&J0FF +% 5 O + O (3 L*--HM' 5 15 ' , C B( 3 ; C 2 C 0 % ! LGM5 GF*GH* 5 O C L*--&M' ' = " 1 % !& L&M5 &G&.*

%/'

H

5 O + 7 7 L*---M' + 9 3' A =9 1 C C 0 ( % ) LFM5 F-&F*G 5 O + 7 7 L*---1M' C C5 3 9 C5 3 9 ' , C -@@@ @ % !& L&M5 .F/. 5 + O ( 4 L&JJ/M' , C " C 0 * LGM5 H&&H*& 5

+ O E + 4 , L*--&M' , 9 3 + 1 5 FG.F.-

-

C - %

5 E L&JJ-M' C 2 % % C $ - % &5 G&/ 5 7 E O Y +O $ R + L*--0M' (3 R B% ( + C $ - % 7 L*M5 &-F&&J 5 E L&JH.M'

0

$% 5 B% Z

? 5 E O E @ 4 O R L*--*M' , C" C " C %- > * L*M5 J&&&/ 5 , O B L*--GM' + #? ' +5 @ 5 ' 2 $ L&M5 0&HG 5 L*--*M' + _ _% " ' R

5 " % 0 L*M5 &.J&J- 5 E 7 O , + L&JJ*M' ( C ? - C $ % 7 LFM5 &JH*-H !15 4 L&J.&M'

5"

* ,= 5 +

5 , O , 1?O 7 4 L&J.HM' % " ' ! 5 0**00/ 3 35 O , 4 O 3O E , ,O C L*--*M' 9 C 5 5 % ' , @ C 7" * 0 $ L0M5 0H00/0 5 B L&J/JM' A C ' % 1

% ' ! L0M5 F*0FFF 5 B O 73 L&J/.M' ( +C + R " 6 % LHM5 H/..-G

H

%/

5 O 4 4 + L*--*M' % C 3 7^ C 0 % 7 LGM5 FG&FH/ 5 + O R RCO R O ( + L&J.&M' R 3 ? C $ '' L*M5 *0F*F- > 5 , O ( + 5 E O E @ C L&JJHM' 2 ? -@@@ @ % ! L*M5 &F0&G* > 5 E O , ? L&JJ-M' , B% ( ' , # % * L.M5 /H.//0 >5 7 L&J./M' , C

+ -5 &/.&JG >% 5 O L&J/HM' R A 1 $ 6 --5 F0*FF*